Abstract The World Bank and the Asia-Pacific Finance and Development Center held the "2013 Global Economic Outlook" conference in Shanghai yesterday. Hans Timo, director of the World Bank's Development Forecasting Bureau, said that the world economy has returned to the growth track, but the growth rate is still slower than before the crisis. global...
The World Bank and the Asia-Pacific Finance and Development Center held the "2013 Global Economic Outlook" conference in Shanghai yesterday. Hans Timo, director of the World Bank's Development Forecasting Bureau, said that the world economy has returned to the growth track, but the growth rate is still slower than before the crisis. In terms of global GDP growth, it is expected to grow by about 2.2% this year, 3.0% in 2014, and 3.3% in 2015. Hans pointed out that China has basically recovered from this worldwide financial crisis and maintained a good growth momentum. The current problems are mainly due to some domestic economic factors, including supply and productivity. In addition, because China's previous policies are too loose, the government may need to adjust the fiscal and monetary policies accordingly. Hans said that according to the good performance of China's economy at the end of last year, the World Bank predicted that China's GDP growth rate this year is about 8%. Although the current situation has brought some uncertainty, the World Bank still believes that China's GDP growth rate is 8 The level of %-7.5% is still in the higher range. Hans believes that China needs to gradually adapt to the economic growth trend of relatively slow growth in the future, and China does not need to be alarmed by the slowdown in GDP growth.
Hans stressed that compared with the slowdown in GDP growth, the Chinese government needs to pay more attention to the quality of economic growth and should gradually shift to green growth. "China has been very successful in the economic development of the past period of time, but many policies are not sustainable in the future. For example, the high proportion of investment in GDP cannot be sustained in the long run. Therefore, China should be mentally prepared. Next, respond to the slowdown in long-term speed growth."
Looking ahead to the global economy, Hans said that although the growth rate is still slow, compared with a year ago, the global economic situation has improved and returned to the growth track. At present, the recovery of the global economy faces multiple risk points: the decline in commodity prices has brought a large negative impact on exporting countries; the negative impact of quantitative easing policy adopted by Japan on other countries needs further observation; the United States may withdraw from quantitative easing. Policy, but the Fed lacks experience in the negative effects of withdrawing from quantitative easing, and its impact on interest rate market and economy is still difficult to estimate.
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