The diamond line is the upstream of the upstream manufacturing industry of the photovoltaic industry. The application of “golden wire cutting†is like a butterfly flapping its wings, bringing a series of great changes to the downstream photovoltaic manufacturing industry and even the photovoltaic power station investment. Let me talk about how the diamond wire cutting is going on. First, the advantages of diamond wire cutting Compared with the traditional mortar cutting, diamond wire cutting has the following three characteristics. Feature 1: Fine wire diameter of the diamond wire. Traditional mortar steel wire cutting, the minimum wire diameter of steel wire can only be 90 microns. Now the mainstream diameter of the Diamond Line is 70 microns. Next year, under the promotion of Yang Ling Mei Chang, the 50-micron diamond line will become the mainstream. The finer diamond wire has less loss during the cutting process, which can effectively increase the amount of silicon ingots per unit mass, which is beneficial to cost reduction. The seams are fine, the traditional mortar cutting process has a wide seam, and the diamond thread cutting seam is only half of the traditional mortar cutting. Feature 2: Front The diamond wire directly electroplates the diamond on the steel wire. Diamond is the highest Mohs hardness in nature. It is two Mohs hardness higher than silicon carbide, which leads to faster cutting speed. Even the modified cutting speed of the cutting machine will be from the original 11,000 pieces per day. Upgrade to 20,000 tablets per day or more. Feature 3: Thin Application of diamond wire cutting is beneficial to the thinning of silicon wafers. At present, the thickness of the silicon wafer of Longji can be 170 microns, and the N-type single crystal silicon wafer can even achieve 130 microns. This is much thinner than the mainstream thickness of two hundred micrometers of conventional polysilicon wafers. In view of the above characteristics, “Golden Wire Cutting†brings three major influences. Second, the impact of diamond wire cutting on the industry 1, silicon wafer production capacity increased by 3 times, equipment assets depreciation Due to the application of "golden wire cutting", silicon wafer cutting is thinner and faster. The number of sunrises of a professional diamond wire cutter is three times that of the previous one. Conversely, the same slice capacity investment now only needs 1/3 of the original. Previously investing 1 GW of slicing capacity required 55 cutting machines, with a total equipment investment of 110 million. Now, with diamond wire cutting, 1 GW of slicing capacity requires only 19 diamond wire cutting machines, and equipment investment only needs 38 million. All of a sudden reduced the barriers to the production of slice capacity. Similarly, after the technical transformation of the existing slicing plant, the production capacity will also increase by three times. The price of a slicer is about two million. When cutting with a mortar, a cutting machine can only cut 11,000 pieces of silicon per day. With a diamond wire cutting machine, the same investment machine can cut 30,000 pieces of silicon per day. For example, in the case of GCL-Poly, which has the largest slicing capacity in the world, the diamond wire has reached 25 GW after the transformation. Therefore, the slicing capacity will be seriously depreciated after this technological revolution. 2. The investment in unit silicon wafer production capacity dropped by 2/3. The original one kilogram silicon ingot can cut 48 silicon wafers, and after the transformation, 1 kilogram silicon ingot can cut 60 polycrystalline silicon wafers. No need to increase the capacity of silicon and ingot furnaces, you can achieve 25% increase in film output. Therefore, after the diamond wire is cut, the same amount of silicon wafers reduces the demand for silicon by 20%. Even if the global PV power plant investment increases by 20% next year, the demand for the most upstream silicon material will not increase. In 2017, the comprehensive polysilicon diamond cutting technology reform is in full swing. After the transformation of the diamond wire, the amount of 1kg silicon ingots will increase by 25%. After the technical transformation, the demand for silicon materials by the same number of silicon wafers will be greatly reduced. It is expected that after the 40 GW polysilicon wafer slicing capacity is completed, the demand for silicon materials will be reduced by 40,000 tons. Therefore, the diamond wire cutting revolution will pose a serious challenge to the final silicon material. On the other hand, in 2018, silicon materials will add at least 115,000 tons of capacity. Including, the East hopes that 15,000 tons of silicon material capacity will be released, GCL-Poly will add 40,000 tons of silicon material capacity in Xinjiang, Tongwei's 25,000 tons capacity in Leshan will also be put into production in the second half of 2018, in Baotou. There will be 25,000 tons of capacity. According to the data we obtained from the survey, the actual silicon production will be 120% of the brand-name production. Therefore, the total production capacity of the 50,000-ton silicon material nameplate of Tongwei-based Leshan and Baotou is 60,000 tons. It is foreseeable that the 2018 silicon material market will usher in a fierce battle. 3. Changing the competitive pattern of single crystal and polycrystalline 1) The cutting cost of single crystal silicon is relatively low. Since the internal crystal lattice series is oriented in the same direction, the cutting process is easier and the consumables are less. The single crystal silicon wafer only needs to consume 1.2 meters of diamond wire. Polycrystalline small square ingots, due to the existence of internal heterogeneous points, the consumption of diamond wires in the cutting process is larger, currently consumes 1.8 meters per wafer. 2) The diamond wafer cut by the diamond wire is processed later. The silicon wafer cut out by the diamond wire has a smoother surface, like a mirror (the silicon wafer cut by the traditional mortar, the surface is very rough, no gloss), too smooth. The surface of the wafer is not conducive to light absorption at the back end. In the process of fabricating a single crystal silicon, the acid flocking forms a pyramid structure on the surface of the cell sheet, effectively solving the problem that the cell sheet is too smooth. Therefore, the cell sheet can be directly fabricated after the diamond wire is cut into the single crystal silicon wafer. However, due to the strong reflection of the polycrystalline silicon wafer, in the process of flocking the battery, it is necessary to additionally superimpose the black silicon technology (or add an additive). Black silicon technology adds an additional $0.30 per wafer. After the diamond wire is cut, the number of wafers is increased. The biggest disadvantage of single crystal silicon is that the cost of the rod is high. Since the diamond cutting technology improves the output of the unit silicon rod, the cost of the unit silicon rod is further amortized. It can be seen that the technological revolution of the diamond line is obviously beneficial to the single crystal technology route. Therefore, after the diamond wire cutting technology revolution, the balance of the single polysilicon market share has reversed. 3) Monocrystalline silicon and perc technology are more friendly The perc technology at the end of the cell is also significantly better on monocrystalline silicon wafers. The monocrystalline silicon wafer superimposed perc can increase the conversion rate by 1.2%, while the polysilicon wafer superposition perc can only increase the efficiency by 0.8%. With various factors superimposed, next year's single crystal technology will become the mainstream, occupying 60% of the market. 4, summary The diamond wire cuts this thin line. Indeed, a series of butterfly effects have been triggered in the entire industry chain. There will be an excess of upstream silicon materials. The midstream slicing is in urgent need of technological transformation, and due to the increased cutting speed of the diamond wire, the production capacity of the slicing segment is rapidly declining. And because of the increase in the amount of film, the supply of silicon is excessive, and the price war of silicon wafers will be inevitable next year. In summary, due to the application of diamond wire cutting, reducing the demand for silicon materials and reducing the cost of wafer cutting, this has greatly reduced the cost of photovoltaic modules, thereby reducing the investment in photovoltaic power plants. Therefore, the cutting of diamond wire makes photovoltaic power a big step toward the cheap Internet. It is the most remarkable industrial revolution. I will pay a deep tribute to Yang Ling Mei Chang, the leader of this industrial revolution! Third, the impact of diamond cutting on the enterprise The extensive application of diamond cutting, for the traditional mortar cutting, the main business is facing a great defeat. 1) Yicheng Xinxin Yichengxin can be the leading enterprise of traditional mortar cutting consumables, occupying 40% of the world market share, but this year due to the revolution of diamond thread cutting, the company's main business (silicon carbide business and cutting waste) Recycling) has a big rout. In the first half of this year, Yicheng Xinneng's revenue fell by 50%. It is expected that Yicheng Xinneng will have no business to do next year. 2) GCL-Poly GCL-Poly has the world's largest ingot production capacity and the world's largest slicing capacity. After the diamond cutting revolution, these two production capacity will be seriously depreciated. At the same time, due to the expected decline in silicon material prices next year, GCL-Poly's silicon material production cost cannot compete with the low-voltage northwest region. It is foreseeable that the gross profit margin of GCL-Poly will be very bleak next year. 3) Yang Ling Mei Chang The current cost of the Jin Gang line is 8.9 cents per meter, and the price is as high as two hairs. Industry companies generally have gross margins of up to 50%. With the help of capital, several leading companies are expanding their production by ten times. It is expected that there will be an oversupply as soon as the first quarter of next year, when the price is expected to slip to 0.1 yuan per meter. Yangling Meichang, the leading company of the diamond line, will have a production capacity of 18 million km by the end of this year. There will be a high-efficiency line of 6 million kmm in March next year. According to our calculations, the total demand for the use of diamond wire cutting in the entire industry is only 30 million km. As a result, the company's production capacity can meet 80% of the global demand. Note: This article represents only the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the standing position.
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