The central bank released inflationary pressures and remained at a high level.

The second quarter of 2011 of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China was held in Beijing. The central bank said in a regular statement issued on the 4th that China's economy continues to develop steadily and rapidly, but inflationary pressures are still at a high level. This judgment is in line with market expectations and also raised expectations for a rate hike over the weekend. The market judges that C PI will innovate as much as 6.2% in June. Regarding the current macroeconomic situation, the central bank’s judgment is: “At present, China’s economic and financial operations are developing in the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control, but the situation facing economic and financial development is still complicated, and the world economy continues to recover slowly, but the risk factors still face More.” The central bank stressed that it is necessary to pay close attention to the latest trends in international and domestic economic and financial development and its impact, implement a prudent monetary policy, pay attention to the stability, pertinence and flexibility of the policy, and grasp the rhythm and intensity of the policy. It is necessary to comprehensively apply various monetary policy tools, improve the macro-prudential policy framework, effectively manage liquidity, and maintain a reasonable social financing scale and monetary aggregate. On July 15, the Bureau of Statistics will release economic data for the first half of the year. Among them, the CPI data in June has received much attention, and most of the institutions are expected to reach a new high of 6.2%. The latest research report released by China Merchants Bank on July 4 predicts that the CPI will remain at 6.1% to 6.3% in June due to the hikes, with a forecast average of 6.2%. Guotai Junan released a research report on the same day, predicting that the CPI for June was 6.2% and the PPI was 7.2%. In 2011, the average CPI was 5.0%, and the average PPI was 6.7%. According to the price monitoring data previously released by the Bureau of Statistics, food prices in June showed an ups and downs. Most vegetable prices continued to fall, and the price of eggs that rose faster in the previous period gradually stabilized, but the price of pork rose more obviously, which became a new factor in raising CPI. As the inflation situation remains tense, the market expects to raise interest rates once in the first half of July. Guotai Junan expects that there will be an asymmetric interest rate increase of deposits and loans at that time, that is, the deposit interest rate will be raised and the loan interest rate will remain unchanged. "The central bank issued three-month, one-year and three-year central bank bills at the same time last week. Although the issuance scale is small, the issuance rates of the central bank bills have risen, and the one-year central bank bill issuance rate has risen to 3.4982. %, just implied a rate hike expectation." Guotai Junan analyst Jiang Chao said. In the three-quarter outlook report released recently, the Bank of China said that considering the high price operation, if the negative interest rate continues to be maintained, it will not help to eliminate inflation expectations, which will affect the regulation effect of monetary policy. Therefore, the third quarter may raise interest rates asymmetrically. 1 or 2 times, but the possibility and necessity of raising interest rates in the fourth quarter will be reduced. Regarding whether or not the quantitative austerity tools will continue to be used, the agency has unanimously expected a limited increase in the RRR. Guotai Junan believes that the open market maturity in July was 370 billion, which was significantly lower than that in June. It is expected that the reserve ratio will not increase again. The open market in the future may be the main tool for withdrawing funds. Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of Bank of China, said that the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions is already at a historical high of 21.5%. Banks can be tightly funded, and the normal loan demand of the real economy is also affected to a certain extent. Symmetrical interest rate hikes have become the first choice for current control measures. Asymmetric interest rate hikes can have an inhibitory effect on inflation expectations while maintaining the company's low financing costs. The central bank also stressed the need to focus on optimizing the credit structure and guiding commercial banks to increase credit support for key areas and weak links, especially for “agriculture, rural areas and farmers” and SMEs. We must continue to play the role of direct financing to better meet the needs of diversified investment and financing. Further improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.  

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