Aluminum in the previous cycle showed a strong upward trend, LME aluminum futures rose 142 US dollars / ton to 2,635 US dollars / ton, an increase of 5.70% since May 20. Aluminum in the domestic main contract for 611 yuan rose by 930 yuan/ton to 20,200 yuan/ton, which was higher to 21,230 yuan/ton. On Friday, it was affected by profit-taking pressure to recover some gains. The spot price rose from 20,100 yuan/ton in the previous weekend to 22,420 yuan/ton in the previous weekend, an increase of 2,320 yuan/ton. It can be seen that the strong rise in spot prices this week has played a major role in driving up the futures price. Domestic stocks on the weekend slightly increased by 1,037 tons to 21,407 tons, and LME stocks fell by 6,800 tons to 710,300 tons last week. Last week, the domestic aluminum price price gap was more clearly arranged, the spot premium increased, and the pattern of near strong and weak was more obvious, indicating the price trend under the influence of low inventory. The following factors affect the trend of aluminum prices last week. Relying on the front, the spot tension stimulated the price to rise rapidly. Last week, the alumina port price dropped to RMB 3,700/ton. Although the transaction is not good, the market is still waiting for a decline. Minmetals' offer price is 3,800 yuan/ton, giving the market greater pressure. Non-China aluminum prices fell to 3,500 yuan / ton, while the port CIF price remained at around 320-350 US dollars / ton. Last week, the aluminum stocks weekly report showed that the inventory was only about 21,000 tons, including 6,000 tons of Shanghai stocks, nearly 3,000 tons of Wuxi stocks, and 13,000 tons of Nanhai stocks. According to spot news, some electrolytic aluminum companies may perform primary processing of aluminum ingots in order to obtain export tax rebates, and export them in the name of aluminum profiles, resulting in a significant increase in exports. This is one of the important factors leading domestic LME strength last week. From the perspective of regional consumption structure, consumption in East China and North China is still relatively strong. Consumption in South China lags behind. Due to the recent heavy use of agricultural transport, transportation of agricultural materials from north to south has brought certain tension to transportation, which also makes aluminum plants The shipment was not smooth, which stimulated the rise in aluminum prices. However, high prices did not bring about large volume of transactions, especially in North China where the market was priceless and the market was more serious. Taken together, the rise in domestic spot aluminum prices last week drove the price trend, which also led to the LME aluminum price upward trend, while the latter part of the strengthening of the domestic aluminum price upward momentum, making the aluminum price trend is more extreme, Friday was finally won In the case of profit-taking, aluminum prices fell sharply. Second, in the future, aluminum prices will be under pressure to increase output. High aluminum prices have limited the operating rate of downstream manufacturers, and construction orders have also been greatly affected. On the other hand, aluminum supply is gradually increasing in the future. Although Yun Aluminum has announced that its production will be reduced from 400,000 tons to 380,000 tons this year, the aluminum plant has expanded its production even more. It is reported that Henan Zhongfu Aluminum Co., Ltd., with an annual production capacity of 185,000 tons, is expected to put some 125,000 tons of production capacity into production in October, and it is expected to start all at the end of the year. At that time, the output will reach 300,000 tons. Henan Luoyang Xindian produces 50,000 tons of electrolysis per year. The new aluminum production capacity will start at the end of August, and it is expected that the start-up will be completed in the near future. By that time, the production capacity will reach 330,000 tons. The impact of supply factors on aluminum prices will become more apparent, and pressure will be placed on high aluminum prices. Taken together, although the future aluminum prices are still likely to rise due to the recent decline in inventories, the increase in the supply of aluminum in the latter period will gradually put pressure on prices. The rise in aluminum prices should be regarded as a mid-level rebound, and aluminum prices remain a bear market in the latter period. Export profit and loss and balance point chart Comparison of cost changes of aluminum ingots SHFE and LME aluminum price ratio chart