I. PMI data performance of non-ferrous metals industry - negative production, shrinking demand The PMI index of non-ferrous metal rolling processing industry further fell below 50, and far below the average of 52.35 since 2005, the industry boom is in a downward trend. Purchasing link: The raw material inventory index rose sharply to 54.2, the purchase volume index fell back to 51.7, and the import and purchase prices dropped sharply to 33 and 39.3. This indicates that producers expect further declines in raw material prices and maintain modest purchases to meet production needs and reserve low-priced inventories. However, due to the expected slowdown in production, the volume of purchases decreased and the stock of raw materials increased. Production: The production index fell further to 47.8, which has been below the critical line of 50 for two consecutive months; the employee index fell significantly to 48.3 from 53.5 in September. In the first half of the year, manufacturers were more motivated, but as production increased and demand fell, excess market intensified, and production gradually tended to shrink in the second half of the year. Sales link: the new order index fell by 50, and fell sharply to 38.6; but the export order situation continued to improve, rising to 60.1 in October; finished goods inventory increased slightly, but overall due to the expected decline in orders, Companies are reluctant to stock up on excess inventory. Second, the relevant industry PMI data comparison - downstream industry boom, there is no shortage of highlights Since the second quarter of this year, the industry-wide PMI index fell below the industry average of 53.16, and continued to weaken, fell to 50.4 in October, manufacturing dynamism is weakening. The major industries in the downstream of non-ferrous metals have a different degree of prosperity. The electrical machinery industry has fluctuated greatly and the overall activity is relatively dynamic. The PMI index rebounded rapidly in September, reaching 56.7 in October. The transportation industry began to shake off the cyclical trend in the third quarter and quickly recovered. The monthly index soared to 57, and it was 54.1 in October. Although it fell slightly but remained strong; the general equipment and special equipment industry experienced a year-long decline in the economy, and recently showed signs of bottoming out. The PMI in October reached 54 respectively. And 49.7; the communications equipment industry has generally rebounded since the second quarter of this year, slightly slipped to around 53 in September and October, but still above the historical average; the construction industry of non-ferrous metals in the important consumer sector shows obvious cyclical characteristics, by the season Due to the influence of sexual factors and Spring Festival factors, the production and operation activities in the first quarter of each year quickly rose from the low point to the high point, and then gradually declined. There was no sign of a trend decline overall. The two industries of ferrous metals and metal products have been declining. The October index was 44.8 and 42.1 respectively, and the signs of recovery were not obvious. Relatively speaking, the downstream industry of non-ferrous metals is significantly better than the non-ferrous industry. Except for the electrical machinery and communications industry, which are operating at high altitudes, the transportation, general-purpose and special equipment manufacturing industries are driven by the peak season of consumption and the economy is picking up. The characteristics of the industry cycle determine that the rising phase of the economy is about to come, and will support related metal consumption, such as copper, aluminum, lead and tin. The steel industry (black metal smelting and processing) is significantly affected by the macroeconomic downturn, and it is difficult to get rid of the downturn in the short term, and related metal consumption may be suppressed, such as zinc, nickel and molybdenum.
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