Thanks to the fall in coal prices, the thermal power has been improving all the way in the past few years. However, don't be blindly optimistic. Use the hourly number to break the five. The subtext behind it is overcapacity. Coupled with the continuous increase in environmental protection and emission reduction policies, the power of alternative power supply is aggressive, and take stock of 2014 outlook 2015, how long is the hot day of thermal power? Hear what the article of the China Energy Research Association and the director of the Huatong Group's Enterprise Management Law Department, Chen Zongfa, exclusively for the Visibility School.
Power generation companies have entered the "best period" since the electricity reform
In 2014, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Bohai Rim appeared the third and fourth rapid decline since 2012. In the first quarter of last year, coal prices fell rapidly to 548 yuan / ton, down 83 yuan, the cumulative decline of 13.2%. In June and July, there was another fourth rapid decline. On July 23, coal prices fell below the 500 yuan mark for the first time in recent years. From 531 yuan on May 28, it fell for 13 consecutive reporting periods and fell to 478 yuan. After slightly rising to 482 yuan, the four consecutive reporting periods were flat. In September, coal prices stopped falling and stabilized. In the fourth quarter, due to the state's efforts to curb coal mine over-production, Shenhua and other large coal enterprises to raise prices and levy tariffs on imported coal, coal prices appeared "stagnant." At the end of October, it recovered to 497 yuan. At the beginning of November, it returned to the "500 yuan mark" and closed at 525 yuan on December 31.
Power generation companies have entered the "best period" since the electricity reform
Throughout the whole year of 2014, the contradiction between the lack of demand in the coal market and overcapacity remains outstanding. In addition to the characteristics of the previous two years of “high inventory, large price decline, and continuous decline in efficiencyâ€, the coal industry has also seen a new phenomenon that has appeared for the first time in the past decade: “negative growth in coal production, negative growth in net import of coal, national consumption of coal†Negative growth".
As a result, the coal volume and price fell in 2014, and the “bear market†characteristics were obvious, which was the result of a combination of various factors. Environmental constraints, rapid development of new energy, increased supply of natural gas, increased intensity of de-coalization, increased demand for coal, reduced coal consumption by electricity, impact of imported coal, and continued overcapacity are all influencing factors.
The oversold coal price is a "significant benefit" for thermal power companies. Fuel purchase is different from the “seller market†four years ago. It is generally characterized by “quantity, good quality and low priceâ€. In particular, the “two rounds†of coal prices fell rapidly in 2014, resulting in a significant drop in fuel costs for thermal power companies. The further reduction in coal consumption has become the most important reason why the power generation industry's operating performance hit a "history high" last year and entered the "best period" since the power reform. The five major power generation groups achieved a profit of 90.7 billion yuan and a thermal power contribution rate of 72%. Of course, the coal price has fallen, causing the pattern of “electricity coal loss†to become more serious.
What does it mean to use the hour to break the five?
In 2014, the total installed capacity of the country reached 1.36 billion kilowatts, and the total power generation capacity was 5.55 trillion kilowatt hours. Among them, thermal power installed capacity was 916 million kilowatts (coal power 830 million kilowatts) and power generation capacity was 4.2 trillion kilowatt hours, accounting for 67.4% and 75.2% respectively. , still maintain an absolute advantage. However, the average utilization hours of thermal power equipment fell below the “5000 markâ€, which was only 4,706 hours, a decrease of 314 hours compared with the same period of last year, the lowest level since 1978. Compared with the previous year, a total of 24 provinces fell year-on-year, of which Guizhou and Tibet fell more than 1,000 hours. The utilization of thermal power has decreased, and the decline in demand for social electricity is the main reason. Due to the economic slowdown, metallurgical and other four key power industries and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the eastern and central regions, as well as the low temperature and high base, the total electricity consumption growth of the whole society last year was only 3.8%. Of course, the increase in hydropower and the continued increase in the total installed capacity are also important factors.
The low utilization rate of thermal power utilization hours, which means “breaking fiveâ€, means that the overcapacity of power generation, the reduction of power generation and the decline of operating income also mean that the competition in the power generation market is intensifying and the operating environment is severe. To this end, all power generation enterprises must have a clear understanding, low-speed power growth is likely to become the new normal, to stabilize the marginal contribution of thermal power by robbing power generation, energy conservation and emission reduction, and technological innovation. At the same time, develop large-scale high-efficiency thermal power units and increase the proportion of clean energy. Enhance competitiveness.
Space is squeezed in the middle
In 2014, the State Council issued the “Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014-2020)â€, which became one of the top ten events in the energy industry last year. The Action Plan sets the total amount of primary energy consumption and total coal consumption “ceilingâ€, which will be controlled to 4.8 billion tons of standard coal and 4.2 billion tons by 2020.
The “National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Coal Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Upgrade and Reconstruction Action Plan 2014-2020â€, requiring coal consumption, pollution emissions, coal to account for “three reductions†in energy consumption, safety operation quality, technical equipment level, and coal consumption in coal consumption. The proportion is “three improvementsâ€. As early as September 2013, the State Council's "Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan" and the Ministry of Environmental Protection "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas to implement the Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan Implementation Rules" have similar provisions.
Faced with the hard constraints of these policies, on the one hand, China is forced to adjust its coal-based energy structure. In the future, renewable energy, nuclear power and natural gas will be developed as new mains; on the other hand, it will mean that the future development of thermal power will be squeezed. We must bid farewell to the "scale expansion" stage in the past, improve the threshold for entry, and enter a new stage of transformation and upgrading, clean and efficient development. Therefore, since 2006, the proportion of thermal power in the power investment structure has continued to decline, from 70% to around 26% in 2014. It is reasonable to compare with the large-scale high-efficiency installed capacity of thermal power and the proportion of clean energy installed.
“Ultra-low emissions†are implemented in disputes
At present, China's environmental pollution is serious, and smoggy weather frequently occurs. The state has increased the environmental protection policies of thermal power companies and become increasingly stringent. In 2014, the company issued "three gold medals". In April, the Ministry of Environmental Protection requested that all coal-fired power plants in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei complete the special emission limit of atmospheric pollutants before the end of the year; on July 1, the state required thermal power enterprises to fully implement the “most severely rigorous†version of the “Fire Emissions from Thermal Power Plantsâ€. Standards; September 17, "Energy Action Plan for Coal Energy Saving and Emission Reduction and Reconstruction 2014-2020" requires that the average coal supply consumption of new coal-fired power plants in the country is less than 300 g/kWh, and the emission concentration of atmospheric pollutants basically reaches the gas turbine emissions. Limit.
What is the future of the thermal power industry? Encounter unprecedented challenges. In order to fulfill social responsibilities and maintain the space for survival and development, thermal power companies not only "resolutely carry out upgrading and upgrading of active units that cannot meet the standards of energy conservation and emission reduction", but also self-pressurize. In 2014, the "ultra-low emission" transformation was being carried out by Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei and other provinces quickly spread to the country. Guohua Power, Zhejiang Energy Group and Huaneng Group plan to invest 10 billion yuan, 5 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan to carry out "ultra-low emission" technical transformation of existing coal-fired units. However, “ultra-low emissions†has triggered fierce social controversy and has become a hot word in the power industry.
The support party believes that “ultra-low emission†can improve China's atmospheric environment, prevent excessive shutdown of old coal-fired machines, and be approved for new coal-fired power projects, which is conducive to the survival of coal-fired power and further increase the proportion of coal converted into electricity. The national energy development strategy is promoted nationwide; the opposing party believes that “ultra-low emissions†is a typical epitome of the thermal power environmental protection threshold. The concept is unclear, the formulation is unscientific, the monitoring data is inaccurate, and there is no major innovation in technology. Severe coal quality conditions are generally not met by power plants, and the investment is large, and the marginal benefits of environmental protection are low, which is likely to cause a large amount of waste of resources and equipment.
Although “ultra-low emissions†are controversial, the marginal contribution of the environment needs to be tested, but the transformation of the wind is also a fact in the country, and the national policy orientation has been encouraged. On December 29, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Interim Measures for the Administration of Substitution of Coal Consumption Reduction in Key Areas, and “rewarded†from the national level in an institutional way: appropriately improving the utilization hours of leading units of energy efficiency and environmental protection indicators; If the gas turbine emission limit is basically reached, the next year's on-grid electricity should be appropriately increased.
Thermal power will not be "big and big"
In the coming period, the policy market environment of thermal power has joys and sorrows, smog is not removed, and controversy continues. It is precisely because the environment is forced, the performance is stable, and the development of thermal power is "internal heat and cold outside". At present, it has entered a new stage of transformation and upgrading and upgrading of development quality. It is foreseeable that the power generation industry will seize the last opportunity to promote the construction of coal-fired power bases in the central and western regions in accordance with the requirements of “three reductions†and “three improvementsâ€, with a focus on 600,000 kilowatts and 1 million kilowatts of large-scale projects in the eastern coastal areas and along the Yangtze River. Efficient thermal power projects to achieve "ultra-low emissions".
Of course, thermal power is also facing problems such as high environmental protection investment pressure, high asset-liability ratio, obvious regional operating environment, and rising coal freight rates. The introduction of the new power reform plan with the content of “four release, one independence and one reinforcement†will also increase the uncertainty of the development of thermal power business.
The most worrying thing is that there is a “double decline†in the hours of thermal power utilization and on-grid tariffs. At present, the on-grid price of thermal power has entered the “declining†channel, and has been lowered in 2013 and 2014 for two consecutive years. In the spring of 2015, there was news that the on-grid tariffs of thermal power stations would be lowered, which had a great impact on thermal power.
But in fact, the thermal power business performance will not be as "big and big" as in previous years, but has entered a relatively stable "platform period", mainly because the "stone" of thermal power performance guarantee has not wavered, the coal market It will remain sluggish. The coal price level for the whole year of 2015 is expected to be lower than last year. The environmental protection policy is also severe and there are improvements and incentives. The environmental protection price and dust removal subsidy have been raised for two consecutive years.
In addition, gas-fired power generation, which belongs to the category of thermal power, has been affected by factors such as rising gas prices, insufficient gas sources, external power transmission shocks, ultra-low emission of coal power, and low utilization hours. , the increase in losses, "sands survival", prudent development, although the National Development and Reform Commission issued a new document before the establishment of gas and electricity price linkage mechanism, the introduction of "capped" gas and electricity benchmarking price (coal electricity benchmark price +0.35 yuan / kWh) , increased certainty, but the prospects for gas-fired power generation are still not very optimistic.
In general, at present, "energy production and consumption are seriously damaging to the ecological environment." Looking ahead, energy restructuring, industrial transformation and upgrading are imperative, and thermal power will continue to upgrade in the hot debate.
HEX BOLT: One type of fastener, consisting of the head and the rod (cylinder with external full/half threads) and usually uesd together with nut.washer.
According to clients' demands, material can be Stainless Steel SS304/316/316L, Duplex Steel S32750/32760/2205/NAS660/904L..
The Standard is various, main standard is DIN/ANSI/GB, of course we also can accept JIS/BSW
Raw material should be cut in concrete length and processed by Cold/hot forge.surface finish,then can become various size fasteners.
Our Stainless Steel fasteners have great quality and are widely used in Heavy Industry.Shipping Industry.Construction Industry.Chemical Industry and Marine Industry.
Hex Bolt is one of our advantage Products. Chinese Manufacture, Qualified Hardware and Fasteners, Different size/Diameter/Tooth pitch, we all can satiafy your demands.
Hex Bolt,Hex Head Bolt,Hex Bolt Fastener,Stainless Steel Hex Bolt
Taizhou Risco Stainless Steel Products Co.,Ltd , https://www.riscofastener.com