Last week, the slump in LME aluminum for five consecutive days weakened the strong pattern in the short term. Three-month aluminum oscillated down after being blocked on the first line on 1860. On Friday, the low price of $1785 was supported and returned to above $1800. . The holding of 480,000 hands kept the price still holding a good upward momentum, but the price was blocked at high levels and increased the pressure of the fund to close out. After the steady increase in LME stocks in the previous week, the increase in stocks last week was curbed. On the whole, as long as the LME aluminum price can stabilize above 1800 US dollars for three months, the upward trend will continue. Shanghai aluminum finished lower last week. The first half of the week's high was between 16,000 and 16060 yuan. However, at the 16,000 level, the market was not strong enough to buy, and the selling pressure was still fierce. On Wednesdays and Thursdays, there were two consecutive days of falling prices. Copper prices were on Friday. Driven by the slump, it hit a new low, but it still showed strong support below 15500. It quickly rebounded sharply after Masukura buying. The low opening and highs on Friday further confirmed the recent sideways oscillation of aluminum prices. pattern. Judging from the weekly chart, Shanghai Aluminum still maintains oscillation in the month-long fluctuation range, and gradually builds a medium-term bottom pattern. The fundamentals of domestic aluminum are still not substantially changed, but we should still pay attention to the following aspects: At the front, the news that the country may cancel export tax rebates next year still has many uncertainties, but many aluminum producers have increased Aluminum export efforts, after all, currently have significantly higher prices in the international market than domestic prices. The surge in exports since August this year continues. It is expected that China will export 1.3 million tons of primary aluminum this year, an increase of 30% year-on-year, and a net export of 520,000 tons, an increase of more than 30% year-on-year. However, the current domestic supply pressure is still relatively large, which is also the main reason for limiting the price of aluminum. By the end of the year, the shortage of funding for aluminum plants in the spot market will increase domestic supply pressure. It is worth noting that the inventory of the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell by more than 4,000 tons last week to more than 99,000 tons. The extent to which the increase in exports can ease the pressure on domestic supply is a major concern for the market. Second, the Chinese government has indicated that it will delay or not issue import licenses for alumina used in processing trade. It also prohibits annual production capacity of 100,000 tons or less, use of obsolete equipment, or construction after April 2002 without access to the central government. The government agreed to import alumina from the smelter, which has led to the decline in alumina prices in the past few weeks. At present, the main driver of international alumina price fluctuations is China. If Chinese buyers continue to withdraw, prices will further decline. The fall in alumina prices drove down the price of spot aluminum ingots. The aluminum price of A00 aluminum in the Shanghai market gradually shifted downwards from last week's yuan/ton to Friday's yuan/ton, down by 200 yuan. /Ton. Third, considering cost factors, according to current alumina prices, if other factors remain unchanged, the cost price of electrolytic aluminum will remain at around 16,000 yuan, even if the average price of electrolytic aluminum is calculated at a higher price of 3,800 yuan for alumina. The price should also be above the level of 15,500 yuan. Therefore, the cost factor also limits the space for aluminum prices to fall. In summary, due to the high domestic aluminum production costs and the country's macro-control over the industry, will be a main interval of price fluctuations for a long time to come. Below 15500, the cost supports the price strongly, while 16,000 or more are suppressed by the current inventory. In the long term, with the effective consumption of domestic stocks and the increase in export intensity, the latter trend will still tend to rise after the completion of a medium-term bottom pattern in the current region. It is advisable that investors should now use short-term operations. (Pan Chicheng / Futures Daily) Source: Futures Daily
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