The latest data shows that the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 53.1% in March, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month and continues to be above the critical point. This is the fourth consecutive month that the index has risen and set a new high since April last year. However, from the performance of PMI in recent years, the PMI in March this year is still relatively low in the same period, only higher than the 2009 level. Luo Baihui, secretary-general of the International Model Association, said in an interview with China Sankei Shimbun that from the overall situation of China's manufacturing industry in March, market demand has rebounded remarkably, production growth has accelerated, and corporate procurement activities have become more active, especially with equipment manufacturing. Industry-related industry performance is particularly prominent, indicating that the manufacturing economy has generally maintained a growth trend. The detailed data shows that the improvement of the production status of large enterprises has become a major factor in the recovery of PMI. In March, the PMI of large enterprises was 54.3%, up 3.4 percentage points from the previous month; the medium-sized enterprises PMI was 50.4%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the small business PMI was 50.9%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating small Enterprises are more sensitive to changes in the external environment, and the state of production and operation is not stable enough. Among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, except for the supplier's delivery time index, other indexes have increased to varying degrees. Among them, the new order index rebounded most obviously. The new order index was 55.1%, which was 4.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. It was above the critical point for three consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing market demand rebounded significantly. The new orders index for steel downstream industries such as general equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, and electrical machinery and equipment has rebounded sharply. The production index for March was 55.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, the highest point since May 2011. March is the traditional production season of the manufacturing industry. The production activities of the enterprises are more active, the production volume continues to grow, and the growth rate has accelerated. Among them, the automobile manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment and other manufacturing industries and general equipment manufacturing industries have significantly improved. The production indexes of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries have been below the critical point for two consecutive months, and the production volume of enterprises has continued to decline. From the perspective of the new order index and the production index, the steel industry itself did not show a significant rebound in production in March, while its downstream manufacturing industry has resumed in March, and the growth rate has accelerated. Even more gratifying is the rebound in the new orders index, especially in the automotive manufacturing and general equipment manufacturing industries, indicating that steel demand will be further released. However, due to the relatively low level of PMI in March this year, and the largest contribution from large enterprises, the demand for small enterprises has not recovered. The initial value of HSBC PMI showed that the initial value of China's HSBC PMI hit a four-month low in March. Therefore, the recovery of steel downstream demand may still be relatively limited. According to the latest index released by the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI of China's steel industry rebounded by 6.5 percentage points in March, approaching 50%. According to this, Luo Baihui pointed out that China's steel industry is gradually emerging from the staged "extremely cold and low valley", and the steel market downturn is gradually eased. However, various factors that restrict the rebound of steel prices still exist. According to related reports, the steel industry PMI index reached 49.3% in March. In particular, the new order index and the new export order index all returned above 50%, and the rebound momentum is strong, indicating that demand is expected to continue to pick up later. Production in the steel industry is becoming more active. The steel industry's production index for March was 46.5%, up 7.1 percentage points from the previous month. At the same time, production-related procurement activities also rebounded, and the steel industry purchase volume index rebounded slightly to 46%, up 1.7 percentage points from February. The raw material inventory index continued to decline, at 43.3%, down 2.4 percentage points from February. Judging from the changes in the trend of the three indexes, the production activities of iron and steel enterprises tend to be active, the purchase of raw materials is rising, and the inventory is declining. According to estimates by the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid-March, the average daily output of crude steel in the country has basically recovered to the level of early October last year. As the weather improved, the construction rate of construction projects increased, and the release of terminal demand in the steel industry accelerated significantly in March. According to relevant monitoring data, in February of the lunar calendar, the terminal purchase volume of the Shanghai construction steel market rebounded sharply by 89% from the lunar calendar in January, an increase of 6% over the same period last year. However, one thing that must be paid attention to is that the current demand release rhythm is more and more repeated, and the price continues to rise. In the first two months of this year, the growth rate of real estate development investment declined year-on-year. The completion of fixed assets investment in railways and transportation also declined year-on-year. The demand for major downstream industries of steel is still difficult to be optimistic. Changes in raw material costs such as iron ore at the steel front end have always been the focus of the market. According to the index report, in March, the steel industry purchase price index rebounded in the first two months of continuous decline, and returned to the expansion range to 50.3%. The data shows that since March, domestic mineral prices have remained stable overall, the market demand for iron fines in North China has been relatively low, and the price of minerals lacks internal upward momentum. Imported mineral prices rose slightly, rising by about $3 per ton since March. With the gradual consumption of the previous inventory, the steel mills in the later stage are expected to re-increase the procurement, and the cost support of steel prices may increase. Relevant persons reminded that although the current steel industry's demand is picking up and inventory is decreasing, the market environment is still relatively complicated, and there are many uncertain factors at the macro level. It is expected that the domestic steel market price increase will be limited in April.
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