The price of iron ore will go up

Since September 2012, with the slight increase in steel prices, iron ore prices have skyrocketed. According to the price index issued by the China Iron and Steel Association, the cumulative increase in steel prices from September 2012 to January 2013 was 8.6%; while the price of imported iron ore rose by as much as 55.7% over the same period, and “the price of steel rose , The price of ore rose sharply.

Analysts believe that the negative impact of steel stocks significantly reducing inventory is emerging. “When steel demand increases, companies concentrate on replenishment of stocks. This drives up demand in the spot market and port stocks decline significantly, which also makes other people’s prices unfair. ”

From the Xinhua News Agency’s monitoring of iron ore inventories at 25 ports across the country, from September 2012 to January 2013, port inventories dropped by 27%, and iron ore stocks fell from 95 million tons to about 69 million tons. It has hit a new low in nearly 30 months, which is only the inventory level in May 2010.

Long-Term Contending Short-Term Convergence Still Controversial For future price trends, BHP Billiton (BHP) Iron Ore Sales General Manager Alan Teewen said that as China’s demand for iron ore will stabilize over the next decade, low-cost iron ore will It will replace the high-cost iron ore that currently exists in large quantities, which will help reduce iron ore prices.

Li Xinchuang, director of the Planning and Research Institute of the Metallurgical Industry, believes that with the increase in the supply of overseas independent mines, the continuous production of overseas rights and minerals in China, the rapid increase in China's self-sufficient iron ore, and fierce competition among mining giants. From a long-term perspective, the overall iron ore price will show a downward trend in the future.

However, there are different views on the short-term price trend. Foreign mining companies believe that the restocking behavior started by Chinese steel companies since January is continuing. Affected by climatic factors, iron ore stocks in China's ports will continue to decline, and short-term prices will remain at current levels.

Some domestic traders said that this year, even the Australian typhoon has not had much impact on the market, and the market still lacks the upward momentum. Some domestic industry figures even think that imported iron ore may fall below the $140 mark this week.