Abstract "China's photovoltaic market has a new round of large-scale launch, which is no doubt." Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said. According to Wang Sicheng's calculation, before the photovoltaic level price, the future 1
    "China's PV market has a new round of large-scale launch, which is no doubt." Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said.     According to Wang Sicheng's calculation, before the photovoltaic level price, the average annual national subsidy for photovoltaic power generation will be 20 billion yuan in the next 10 years.
    Compared with the new investors who are eager to try, the earlier the investors involved in the industry, the lower the excitement. In the face of many major risks such as small investment returns, roof ownership, and subject changes, it is difficult to make the domestic PV market in the short term. Big.
Good and continuous
    The photovoltaic industry, which once struggled on the verge of dying, has been enjoying good news these days.
    “The distributed subsidy policy will be introduced before the end of August this year. At the same time, the subsidized price, PV grid connection and other previously discussed photovoltaic package policies will be launched together.†August 2, International Solar Energy held in Datong After the curtain of the competition and the International Solar Summit, the Deputy Director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration Liang Zhipeng told reporters.
    The previously promised price commitment of 0.56 euros/watt and the annual export volume of 7GW have been reached. On August 6, this price commitment has been implemented, avoiding the high tariff of 47.6% of China's exports to Europe.
    At the same time, Artes (China) Investment Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Artes Investment Company") Group Business Development Director Tu Wu said that the list of national distributed photovoltaic demonstration zones will be delayed. In the subsidy policy, the "this shuttle bus" was announced, and 14 demonstration zones were reported, including 7 provinces and 7 cities. “It is estimated that there will be about ten demonstration zones finally announced. These demonstration zones are selected from the national industrial parks or economic development zones of the provinces (cities), and each PV project has scale requirements.â€
    What is the distributed subsidy price? The 0.42 yuan/Watt subsidy that was previously transmitted may still have variables. Liang Zhipeng humorously described this reporter as "just like the vegetable market, not the last minute, the price is not Will be the same."
    According to Wang Sicheng's calculation, before the PV price level, the average annual demand for photovoltaic power generation will be 20 billion yuan in the next 10 years, that is, a total of 200 billion yuan of subsidized cake to attract investors to compete in the domestic PV market.
    In Wang Sicheng's view, before 2020, the average installed capacity of 10-15 GW per year is no problem. Last year, the market capacity was 100 billion to 150 billion yuan. “At present, the National Energy Administration is planning for the photovoltaic industry for 30 years and 50 years. By 2015, China’s cumulative installed capacity will reach 35GW (35 million kilowatts), and by 2020 it will reach 100GW (100 million kilowatts); 2020 to 2050 The installed capacity of photovoltaics will also increase substantially, with an average annual installed capacity of 30 GW. By then, the overcapacity will naturally disappear. At this time, the domestic PV production capacity is just enough for the domestic market demand.†Wang Sicheng revealed.
The game of investment and risk
    In response to a new round of large-scale launches in China's PV market, Wang Sicheng said in an interview: "I am worried that PV investors will flock to them again, and will repeat the previous farce, and eventually it will be empty."
    Nowadays, "Coal Capital" Datong is about to enter the photovoltaic industry with great enthusiasm. It is said that at the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the output value of the photovoltaic industry will be equivalent to the output value of the local coal industry.
    "Now the country is discussing two things. First, where is the demonstration area? First, how much the subsidy price is set," the industry authority told the reporter. "But it is certain that the country will allow enterprises to squat. The tip of the tip is a bit profitable and will not allow the company to make a big profit."
    “From the large-scale ground-based photovoltaic power station to the focus on the development of distributed photovoltaics, mainly the ground power stations are mostly distributed in the western regions such as Qinghai. The time-consuming and labor-intensive construction of power stations will eventually have a problem of consumption, and the electricity generated will be no one, but distributed photovoltaics. But it can be absorbed on the spot to solve the terminal market problem." Tu Wuyi told this reporter.
    From the ground to the roof, China has taken an important step in opening up the domestic market. In fact, the war of finding the roof has already begun.
Artes Investment, which started research last year, found that distributed PV "ideal is full, but reality is bone."
"Under the current economic situation, enterprises are short of money, and small businesses are risky, and may be closed down when they are," Tu Wuyi sighed. "So it is difficult to pick."
What disappoints Tu Wuyi is that although Qingdao Haier Group, which has been selected by thousands of people, has a large roof, and will save millions of dollars per year after doing distributed photovoltaic projects, Haier’s enthusiasm is not high. Haier's consideration is that it can save millions of dollars every year, and the cost of construction of photovoltaic projects in the early stage is about ten times that of savings. It takes eight or nine years to get back, and there is a problem in the middle of the roof. What to do, the risk is too great compared to the return on investment.
In order to solve the roof problem, the upper and middle reaches of polysilicon and component companies have tried to cooperate with the roof enterprises, and through the establishment and sale, and a certain proportion of the annual return to achieve a "win-win", but in the actual operation process is a problem.
Tu Wuyi deeply felt that "the best way is to cooperate according to the roof ownership, but since the life of the photovoltaic equipment is 25 years and the subsidy period is 20 years, during this period, the roofed enterprise renovates the roof. How to deal with business closures, corporate transfers, etc., no enterprise dare to promise anything, and Chinese companies, especially SMEs, have a life expectancy of less than 25 years."
It is worth noting that, in addition to the subsidies given by the state, the state allows the provinces (cities) to subsidize local PV distributed projects according to their own financial situation. "The amount of subsidies at the provincial and municipal levels is completely unrestricted by the state, and it is entirely determined by the local provinces (cities)." Wang Sicheng told reporters. But what worries PV companies is that no province or city has actually introduced a corresponding subsidy policy until today.
In addition to industrial integration and quality issues, Wang Sicheng is most worried about financing problems. Prior to the Golden Sun Project, the state gave investors 50%, or even 70% of the funds to build power stations. Nowadays, all the initial investment is for the developers themselves. The developer’s funds need to be generated by electricity to be recovered. The financing problem is Very serious. The problem of financing is not solved, and no one in the big market is going to vote.
However, in the opinion of industry experts, although distributed PV is still “crossing the river by feeling the stonesâ€, compared with the previous Golden Sun project, the subsidy is one at the end, and the original speculation is abandoned. It is already a Great progress.
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