Abstract Since the financial crisis in 2009, trade protectionism has rebounded globally. In recent years, major economies have set off the trend of signing free trade agreements, promoting the liberalization of global trade and investment, and increasing trade liberalization and facilitation measures. At the same time, the reporter also learned that...
Since the financial crisis in 2009, trade protectionism has rebounded globally. In recent years, major economies have set off the trend of signing free trade agreements, promoting the liberalization of global trade and investment, and increasing trade liberalization and facilitation measures.
At the same time, as the unemployment rate in major developed countries is still at a historically high level, the manufacturing development of some emerging economies is in trouble. In the context of the fragile recovery of the global economy and the overall downturn in international trade, countries tend to protect local enterprises and promote employment. The practice of revitalizing the economy and developing endogenous power, the situation of trade protectionism is still grim.
Most anti-dumping and countervailing investigations
Although the G20 summit extended several commitments not to adopt trade protectionist measures, in the absence of economic growth momentum and high unemployment rate, some countries continue to find ways to limit imports in order to alleviate employment pressures and business difficulties. The domestic market is reserved for local industries.
According to recent statistics from the UK's think tank “Global Trade Alertâ€, nearly 90% of the trade restrictions introduced by G20 members in the financial crisis have been implemented since the financial crisis; as of August 19, 2013, new countries around the world have been introduced. Nearly 300 trade measures based on neighbors.
According to the ninth Trade Regulatory Measures Supervision Report issued by the WTO, from October 2012 to May 2013, all members adopted 109 trade restrictions, covering 0.5% of global imports, of which the number of new trade restrictions reached financial The highest value since the crisis, the trade remedy investigation based on anti-dumping investigations is still the main means of trade restriction measures.
Since October 2008, trade restrictions imposed by members of the G20 have affected 3.6% of global trade in goods. Manufacturing is still the most affected industry, with electrical machinery and parts, machinery, chemical products, optical and precision instruments accounting for 58% of all restrictions, aiming to stimulate trade protection in the country's industrial renaissance. Is still rising.
Under this circumstance, China, the largest developing economy, is not immune. In 2012, China’s export products encountered 72 trade remedy investigations. Both in terms of quantity and the amount involved, it surpassed 2011.
According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, in 2011, China’s export products suffered a total of 69 trade remedy investigations, involving a total amount of about 5.9 billion US dollars. In the first three quarters of 2012, China’s export products encountered 55 foreign trade remedy investigations, involving an amount of 24.3 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of nearly 8 times.
From the survey originating countries or regions, the 2012 trade remedy survey was mainly initiated by the United States, the European Union, Brazil, India, Canada, Argentina, and Thailand, Australia, South Africa and other countries. The products involved have also expanded from traditional agricultural products and low value-added industrial products to large enterprises and high value-added products.
Relevant information shows that China has become the country with the most anti-dumping investigations in the world for 17 consecutive years, and has become the country with the most anti-subsidy investigations in the world for six consecutive years.
The future export structure will be tilted towards heavy industry
China has encountered so many anti-dumping investigations and is closely related to the structure of China's foreign trade products.
In the early days of reform and opening up, China's foreign trade was mostly for primary products such as tea, pork chop, mineral products, and livestock products, as well as processing trade products of “three to one supplementâ€. Unlike Japan and South Korea, products started from the local market and then slowed down. Slowly expand to overseas expansion. This makes China's foreign trade different from other countries.
As a result, China has a large number of foreign trade products, but few brands. Among the Fortune 500 companies published by Fortune magazine, more than 60 companies in China were shortlisted. However, in the Interbrands magazine, which publishes the top 100 manufacturing brands every year, Chinese companies have not yet been seen.
In 2013, China made a further shift in the structure of its export products, that is, to promote competitive products that were developed locally. Premier Li Keqiang has repeatedly played the role of "super salesman".
On November 4th, in the "Prime Minister's Open Class", Li Keqiang said that Chinese companies must not only sell shoes and hats and general processed products, but also sell finished products, especially high-end finished products.
Most of these high-end finished products are heavy-duty products.
On November 30, Premier Li Keqiang ended his trip to Europe and Asia. During the 120 hours of his visit, he arranged 53 diplomatic activities to recommend Chinese products, including high-speed rail, 4G technology, nuclear power, hydropower, wind power, photovoltaics, etc. More than one big order.
From October 9th to 15th, 2013, when Li Keqiang visited Southeast Asia, he promoted the cooperation of road and railway, communication energy, oil and gas development and Pan-Asian railway construction; on October 23, when discussing the industrial park and railway construction in India; October 25 When meeting with the Prime Minister of Mongolia, he proposed to connect the railways and roads of the two countries and the transportation of natural gas and electricity.
China has many years of domestic development advantages in these infrastructure and heavy industry products.
Lin Yifu, honorary president of Peking University National Development Research Institute, believes that WTO accession will promote the export of light industrial products, heavy industrial products are capital-intensive products, and China does not have a comparative advantage. However, in the past few years, mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products have become the main products of China's export. Among them, the equipment manufacturing industry, especially the complete sets of equipment, is particularly prominent. For example, export orders for rail transit equipment are increasing year by year; generator sets, cement production lines, large tankers and other equipment. Manufacturing exports also achieved rapid growth.
After more than 10 years of "re-industrialization", "China Heavy Machinery" began to go abroad. According to Longzhou Jingxun's research, China's heavy industry product exports rose from 29% in 2001 to 38% in 2011, surpassing light industrial products and electronic products.
China's next export structure is tilting toward heavy industry.
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