Be wary of innovators, dilemma, China's industrial transformation and upgrading into a critical period

In the "China Industrial Competitiveness Research Group" and the Social Science Literature Publishing House recently held the "Industry Blue Book: China Industrial Competitiveness Report (2015) No. 5" release and seminar, Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Researcher and industry editor-in-chief Zhang Qizi said that the “13th Five-Year Plan” is a critical period for China's industrial transformation and upgrading. The potential space for transformation and upgrading is still very large, but it also faces some challenges, including the challenges of new changes in regional relations. Two advantages of the challenge and the challenge of the TPP.
Zhang Qizi pointed out that in the face of challenges, China should coordinate the two major international and domestic situations with the concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing, and coordinate the two advantages of post-development and first-start, so as to make new breakthroughs in China's industrial transformation and upgrading. Among them, it is very important to coordinate and coordinate the relationship between the first-mover advantage and the late-comer advantage. Otherwise, it will fall into the "innovator's dilemma".
The reporter learned at the meeting that the industry blue book is based on the theme of “One Belt and One Road Strategy” and International Capacity Cooperation. Focus on issues related to industrial cooperation. The report analyzes the complementarity of 12 countries along the “Belt and Road” and the Chinese industry, and the advantages and disadvantages of the “One Belt, One Road” strategy of the provinces in the northeast and western regions. At the same time, it analyzed and proposed the industrial transformation and upgrading of China and the countries along the “Belt and Road”.
Jin Hao, director of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that with the opening of the third globalization model, China is returning to the world. He said that under the new globalization situation, industrial development faces new challenges. The issue of “One Belt, One Road” and international capacity cooperation has become extremely realistic and extremely strategic. The Industry Blue Book analyzes China's industrial competitiveness in the context of a new era of globalization, and proposes a new concept of international cooperation with a very good theme.

The industrial gradient transfer space narrows the process of sustained economic growth, which is the process of continuous transformation and upgrading of the industry. The Blue Book pointed out that since the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", China's industrial transformation and upgrading have made significant progress, highlighting the fact that the strong international competitiveness of low-end industries continues to be maintained, the international competitiveness of medium and high-end industries is enhanced, and the international competition of service industries. With the improvement of strength, the import substitution of low-end and mid-range products has progressed significantly. Although China's industrial transformation and upgrading have made the above progress, the task of China's industrial restructuring has not been completed, and it is still in the period of industrial transformation and upgrading.
The Blue Book pointed out that in the international industrial transfer, there is a phenomenon of gradient transfer. There is also a gradient shift in the industrial transfer between China's regions, that is, the developed industries in the eastern coastal areas have shifted their industries that have lost their comparative advantages to those with relatively underdeveloped economies. The gradient transfer of this industry not only plays a very important role in accelerating the economic development of the central and western regions, but also effectively avoids the sharp decline of China's traditional advantages and avoids the occurrence of competitive advantage. However, according to the gap in regional economic development level, the promotion of industrial gradient transfer, in order to provide room for maneuvering for industrial transformation and upgrading, will be narrowed during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.
Throughout the reform and opening up, the development pattern between China's regions has appeared in three different periods: the rapid growth in the eastern region and the slow growth in the central and western regions. The growth in the eastern and central western regions is relatively fast, and the growth in the central and western regions is faster than that in the central and western regions. East area. The emergence of the first period is largely related to the better foundations and conditions for the opening up of the eastern region, the ability to undertake the transfer of external industries, and the space to undertake. The emergence of the second period is largely related to the ability of the central and western regions to undertake industrial transfer, and the eastern region still has the advantage of undertaking foreign industrial transfer. The emergence of the third period is largely related to the weakening of the kinetic energy of industrial transfer in developed countries, the weakening of the outward transfer of industries in the eastern region and the narrowing of space.
Zhang Qizi said that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China still has room to implement inter-regional industrial transfer, but the eastern region is transferable to the central and western regions, and the industrial scale acceptable to the central and western regions will decline. Through the transfer of stocks between industries, optimizing the spatial layout of stocks, promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, and promoting economic growth will be adjusted.
Based on this, the Blue Book recommends that the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period should promote innovation as a key driver of regional coordinated development, both to support the implementation of innovation-driven strategies in developed regions, and to support and encourage innovation-driven development in the central and western regions. road. The central and western regions should focus on strengthening the capacity building of the advantage of using the latter, and the eastern region should establish a number of international advanced manufacturing bases that can better utilize the first-mover advantage. It is necessary to actively promote the construction of inter-regional collaborative innovation communities and build a number of new high-tech innovation centers to promote the transformation and upgrading of China's industries.

The blue book of "post-issue" and "first-come" advantages coexists, pointing out that China as a developing country, compared with developed countries, there is still a considerable gap between the level of industrial development and technological innovation, and there are still advantages to be exploited. . Only after China has become a middle-income country, the difficulty of using the advantage of late-comer is greater than before. It is not possible to use this cost advantage and resource advantage to exert this late-comer advantage. Only through a certain degree. Innovation can uncover potential latecomer advantages.
At the same time, in the process of China's march to high-income countries, we must also begin to focus on nurturing and accumulating first-mover advantages, and gradually improve the role of first-mover advantage in China's economic growth. A new and great technological revolution that is gestating the world has also provided unprecedented opportunities for China to cultivate its first-mover advantage.
If you can't coordinate the relationship between the two, you may be trapped by the "innovator's dilemma." The "innovator's dilemma" was discovered by American scholar Clayton Christensen. Analyze the history of enterprise innovation. It is not difficult to find that some leading companies cannot continue to maintain their leading position in the industry when they encounter some form of market change and technological change. This failure has occurred in both fast-growing industries. It also occurs in industries that are slow to develop; both in industries based on electronic technology and in industries based on chemical and mechanical technologies; both in manufacturing and in services.
Christensen found that the reason for the failure was that in the face of continuous technological innovation and disruptive technological innovation, the value network of the enterprise determined that managers would not invest resources and management talents into destructive technological innovation. The key to the role of latecomer is to promote integrated and imitative innovation. The direction of innovation is certain. After the success of innovation, the impact on corporate profits and value is comparable to that of Christensen's continuous technological innovation. The first-mover advantage requires original innovation, the technical route and the market are uncertain, and the impact on the value and profit of the enterprise is uncertain, which is equivalent to the disruptive technological innovation that Christensen calls.
The phenomenon of “innovator's dilemma”, although first occurred at the enterprise level, when the enterprise as a subject of innovation generally faces this problem, it will rise to the national level.
The Blue Book believes that we must make good use of the "two advantages." To make good use of the "backward advantage" and "first mover advantage" at the same time, it is necessary to establish an institutional mechanism and organizational structure that can simultaneously utilize and exert these two advantages. The first is to establish an inclusive economic governance system, through the decentralization of power, financial system, factor market and price reform, to break the institutional and institutional barriers to innovation and entrepreneurship of small and medium-sized enterprises, and create an atmosphere and institutional mechanism conducive to mass entrepreneurship.
The second is to encourage enterprises to carry out basic and cutting-edge innovation research, attach importance to disruptive technological innovation; encourage frontier basic research, put cutting-edge basic research into the key position of cultivating leading edge, and provide platform knowledge for cutting-edge innovation and leading edge cultivation. Be patient and determined for cutting-edge basic research.
The third is to concentrate resources to break through the core technology that constrains the advantages of latecomers and break the situation that key components of high-end products depend on imports.
The fourth is to set up departments and institutions that are specifically oriented to foster first-mover advantage, adhere to strategic and cutting-edge orientation, and concentrate on cultivating leading advantages.

Promoting the establishment of an inclusive international economic order The "13th Five-Year Plan" period is a crucial period for China's industrial transformation and upgrading. Zhang Qizai suggested that China should coordinate the two major international and domestic situations with the concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing, so as to make new breakthroughs in China's industrial transformation and upgrading. In particular, we must actively promote the establishment of a new international economic order.
There are different ideas for constructing an international economic order. One is to build an international economic order based on the concept of zero-sum game. For example, interest groups are formed in an alliance manner, and various interest groups protect the interests of member states within the group. The other is to build an international economic order with the concept of win-win, win-win and win-win.
China is an active advocate and practitioner of cooperation and win-win in promoting the construction of an international economic order. In the general debate of the 70th UN General Assembly, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that we must pursue a new concept of win-win, win-win and win-win, throwing away the old thinking that I win and lose, and we must be in the international and regional At the level of building a global partnership, we will embark on a dialogue without confrontation, and we will join the new road of non-aligned countries and countries. The Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee clearly stated that it is necessary to actively participate in global economic governance and promote the development of the international economic order in the direction of equality, justice, cooperation and mutual benefit.
Although the United States promoted the TPP, although it sang the tone of free trade, its concept is still the old idea. It is based on the concept of zero-sum game. It seems to promote free trade, but under this slogan is trade. The reality of protectionism, the implementation of free trade in the small bureau, the vigilance of innovators in the overall situation, China's industrial transformation and upgrading into a critical period to promote trade protectionism.
The Blue Book believes that the “One Belt, One Road” strategy advocated by China adheres to the concepts of peaceful cooperation, openness and tolerance, mutual learning and mutual learning, and mutual benefit. China should actively explore new international cooperation and global governance models in the implementation of the "One Belt, One Road" strategy based on the behavior of the Asian Games, and provide experience and examples for promoting the establishment of an inclusive international economic order.

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