Erdos City of Inner Mongolia, Lingwu City of Ningxia (Ningdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base), Qingyang City of Gansu Province and Yulin Prefecture of Shaanxi Province are known as the “Golden Triangle†of energy. Recently, the mid- and long-term development plans for these cities have been gradually introduced. Undoubtedly, the development and deep processing of coal as well as the new coal chemical industry are listed as the focus of their future development in the above areas. In this kind of planning, will there be similarities or even repeated construction in the industry? If so, how should we look at it? Reporter conducted a survey.
The layout of the project is similar to the obvious first look at the planning of these cities.
As the rising star of energy “Golden Triangleâ€, the Ningdong region clearly pointed out in its long-term development plan that in the future, based on the rich coal resources in Ningdong region, it will vigorously develop the coal mining and deep processing industries and build coal-to-olefin, coal-to-oil, Coal dimethyl ether, coal to fertilizer, coal to methanol and other projects. By 2020, a national coal base, thermal power base, and coal chemical base will be formed with a coal production capacity of 130 million tons, a total installed capacity of 27 million kilowatts, and a coal chemical product production capacity of more than 20 million tons. At the same time, plans have been made for the four major project areas of coal from Ningdong Coal Chemical Industry, including methanol to olefins, coal-based dimethyl ether, coal indirect liquefaction, and coal to fertilizer. Among them, the coal-based dimethyl ether project area will rely on the 210,000-ton/year dimethyl ether project that has been completed and put into production, and will eventually achieve a production capacity of 830,000 tons/year; the coal-to-methanol to olefin project area will be put into production. On the basis of the 500,000 tons/year MTP (coal-based propylene) project, construction of MTP and MTO (coal-to-methanol to olefins) projects will continue, resulting in an annual production capacity of 1.22 million tons/year of olefins; the coal indirect liquefaction project area will be formed in 2020. The capacity of 8.2 million tons of oil per year; the coal-to-fertilizer project area will eventually be built with 1.04 million tons of synthetic ammonia and 1.84 million tons of urea per year as the country's largest coal-based chemical fertilizer base.
The Ordos City proposed: to develop thermal power generation, coal-to-oil, coal-to-methanol, coal-to-methanol to olefins, coal-to-dimethyl ether, coke, and calcium carbide, and increase the near-conversion rate of coal to the end of the "Twelfth Five-year Plan." The on-site conversion rate of coal must reach more than 50%. In addition, a 3 million-tonne-per-year coal-to-dimethyl ether project will be used as a pivot to form a 7 million-ton/year dimethyl ether production capacity; two additional production lines will be built to form a Shenhua coal direct liquefaction project, forming 3 million tons/year. Coal-based oil product capacity. At the same time, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of coke and large-scale power generation projects. By 2020, 11 million tons of coal-based oil, 6 million tons of coke and 15 million kilowatts of power generation capacity will be formed, making Ordos a world-class energy and chemical base.
The old energy and chemical bases in Yulin and Yan’an in Shaanxi Province are even more ambitious. Among them, at the end of the “Twelfth Five-year Plan†period in Yulin, a total of 66 million tons of coke, 4.6 million tons of coal tar deep-processed, 5 million tons of coal-based oil, 10 million tons of coal-made methanol, 4 million tons of coal, and methanol-to-olefins will be accumulated. Annual production capacity of tons of aromatics from coal and 2.35 million tons of polyvinyl chloride. At the same time, an annual production capacity of 200 million tons of coal and 25 million kilowatts of thermal power generation will be added. Yan'an City will eventually form an annual production capacity of 100 million tons of coal, 5 million tons of coke, 20 million tons of oil refining, 1 million tons of ethylene, and 3 million tons of methanol and 750,000 tons of methanol to produce olefins.
Even Qingyang City, Gansu Province, which has been developing oil and gas production and petroleum processing, has been affected by the above-mentioned areas, and has been keen to coal mining and near-coal transformation of coal. Qingyang City's “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†clearly stated that it is necessary to vigorously develop the five major industries of petrochemicals, coal power, coal chemical industry, fine chemicals, and building materials, and strive to build 10 million tons of crude oil production, 10 million tons of refining, and 100 million tons of large scale Coal production, tens of kilowatts of installed coal, 10 million tons of coal chemical production, and 1 billion cubic meters of natural gas, coalbed methane, and 12 billion cubic meters of coal gas.
Several local plans are inseparable from coal-to-olefins, coal-to-oil, coal-to-dimethyl ether, coal-to-fertilizer, and coal-to-methanol. They are all willing to make huge investments and are competing for national and world-class competition. According to the current actual investment of the Shenhua coal-to-oil and coal-to-olefin projects that have already been put into production, 110 million yuan / 10,000 tons of oil and 280 million yuan / million tons of olefins are projected. In the next 5 to 10 years, energy will be used in the "Golden Triangle" region. Methanol to olefins (including MTP) accumulated to 8 million tons / year, the required funds of about 224 billion yuan; coal-to-oil total scale of 24,500,000 tons / year, need to invest 290 billion yuan; coal gas 16 billion cubic meters / year According to the calculation of 1 cubic meter of coal gas for investment of 5 yuan, a total investment of 80 billion yuan is required; the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation is 80 million kilowatts/year, and a total investment of 30 billion yuan is needed. If we count the coal mining, coke, deep processing of coal tar, calcium carbide, polyvinyl chloride, methanol, dimethyl ether, chemical fertilizers, and newly planned oil refining and ethylene projects and supporting service facilities, the entire energy “golden triangle†will be used for the next 10 years. Investment in the construction of energy and chemical projects will reach more than 900 billion yuan.
What kind of consequences will result from such a huge amount of money "squeezing" the project to the similar energy "Golden Triangle" region?
Some experts are concerned about the consequences of serious "four coal-based coal-fired coal mines, all of which place coal chemical development as a priority, and will inevitably lead to duplication of competition and homogenous competition. The consequences are worrisome." National Energy Development Institute, National Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission Gao Shixian, director of the research center, Zhang Hong, director of the policy research department of the China Coal Industry Association, Gu Zongqin, director of the Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning, and Hu Xing, deputy inspector of the Shaanxi Provincial Office of Industry and Information Technology expressed their concerns. They said that such a huge amount of funds will be concentrated on similar projects, which may lead to four major adverse consequences.
First, huge coal consumption may trigger coal market volatility. If all the coal chemical projects planned by the “Golden Triangle†of energy are implemented, the annual consumption of coal will exceed 400 million tons, equivalent to 36% of the country’s approved total coal production in the region. Due to the special requirements of coal used in chemical industry, for example, the dry distillation of coal requires a large amount of lump coal as raw material. With the increase of coal mining rate, the lump coal acquisition rate is getting lower and lower, and many coal coking companies may face the risk of no rice as a defect. Moreover, the function of the "Golden Triangle" of energy is mainly to promote the sound development of energy resources in the Ordos Basin. While ensuring the sustainable economic and social development of the region, it also provides energy for the eastern region through the transmission of electricity from the west to the east and the east of coal. If the local government has digested more than 400 million tons of coal, and even some companies' supply of raw materials is tense, how can the energy "Golden Triangle" assume the task of "continuation of energy in the 21st century?"
Second, due to the constraints of water resources, the project is difficult to play a role. Experts believe that although the Ordos Basin is rich in coal, salt, oil and gas resources, the lack of water resources and ecologically fragile conditions will seriously restrict the project's capacity. At present, some projects in Yulin, Ningdong, and Ordos have already found that water resources are stretched. Some projects were forced to cut production and stop production due to insufficient water supply during the dry season. Once the planned projects are completed, the annual water requirement is definitely an astronomical figure. This will not only aggravate the inconsistency in the supply and demand of local water resources, but may even lead to the phenomenon of “grabbing†water in industry and agriculture and in the lives of residents. By then, many projects with huge investments will face the thirst of thirst.
Third, the pressure of carbon dioxide emission reduction is increasing. Coal-based coal chemical projects are high-emission projects. For every ton of methanol produced, 2.8 tons of carbon dioxide will be emitted; for one ton of coal-based oil products, 8.8 tons of carbon dioxide will be emitted.
Other coal-fired power generation, coke, calcium carbide and other projects will emit carbon dioxide. If all of the above-mentioned planned projects are implemented, the annual carbon dioxide emissions from energy “Golden Triangle†may be as high as 500 million tons. With the increase of national environmental protection requirements, the pressure of carbon emission reductions by related companies will be enormous. Li Shuyi, a member of the Shaanxi Provincial Decision-making Advisory Committee, warned that taking Shaanxi alone as an example, by 2015, the carbon dioxide emissions from coal chemical industry may reach 180 million tons, putting tremendous pressure on the province's energy-saving and emission reduction work.
“If the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air of a certain area is high, it will seriously affect the normal operation of the large-scale air separation plant molecular sieve, and then affect the normal production of the entire chemical plant. This lesson has happened before.†Li Dapeng, assistant to the general manager of Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Group, reminded .
The fourth is to face greater risk of investment recovery. On the one hand, energy and chemical projects, especially coal chemical projects themselves have large investments, long construction periods, and high technical and management requirements. The projects built are often difficult to meet production, standards, and results on schedule. Some projects have been difficult to reach design capabilities even for several years, increasing the company's financial costs. On the other hand, the “Golden Triangle†of energy homogenization competition will be constrained by such factors as transport bottlenecks and distance from consumer sites, causing partial overproduction of products, insufficient operating rate of enterprises or competition for price competition, reducing revenue, and extending the repayment period. At present, more than 90% of the enterprises involved in the development of energy "Golden Triangle" are state-owned and large state-owned enterprises, and most of the funds for project construction depend on banks. Once this happens, the risk will be passed to the banking system, increasing bank bad debts, and even trigger new financial turmoil and social problems.
Some experts said that there is no need to worry, however, in favor of energy "Golden Triangle" to vigorously develop the energy and chemical industry, and recognized the same layout of the experts are also in the minority.
He Yongde, a coal chemical expert and member of the Shaanxi Provincial Decision-making Advisory Committee, said: "The energy 'Golden Triangle' plan and the project layout are in line with the principle of national energy proximity, intensive, centralized, and efficient transformation, and will not bring any adverse consequences."
According to He Yongde's analysis, first of all, the resources of the “Golden Triangle†of energy are sufficient, and the development of the energy and chemical industry has inherent advantages. The characteristics of rich coal, lean gas, and low oil resources in China determine that we must develop coal chemical industry to ensure China's energy strategic security. Compared with the traditional coal chemical industry, the new coal chemical plant has a large scale, low energy consumption, low pollutant emissions, high added value, and has a significant role in driving the local economy. However, the relatively mature technologies of the new coal chemical industry are coal-to-dimethyl ether, coal-to-olefin (or propylene), coal-to-natural gas, coal-to-oil, and coal-based fertilizer technology based on the coupling of high-efficiency coal gasification technology. Few, objectively decided on areas including energy "golden triangle", can only be on the same project.
However, similarity does not mean overcapacity and redundant construction, nor does it mean that projects or products are not competitive. For example, coal produces olefins. In China, the annual olefin deficiencies exceed 10 million tons. The shortage of petroleum resources and the high cost of producing olefins. Using our independently developed DMTO technology can not only effectively solve the problem of insufficient oil resources, but also enable efficient and clean coal conversion and promote the implementation of coal-to-oil strategy. In 2010, the world's first 600,000-ton/year DMTO industrialization demonstration project with a total investment of RMB 17 billion was put into operation in Shenhua Baotou, which achieved good economic returns that year. In the future, it will bring at least 2 billion yuan in net profits each year. How can such a project be more "similar"?
For another example, the west coast of Mexico, located in Houston, USA, has a total length of 120 kilometers. All of the regional layout is similar to petrochemical projects. The scale of investment and industry is much larger than the “Golden Triangle†of energy.
However, it has not been known that companies compete with each other in price competition, and even more companies do not have the pressure to reduce carbon emissions.
Secondly, there is no need to worry too much about the large investment in coal chemical projects and the long payback period. On the one hand, all the companies choose are new coal chemical technologies. Natural gas, dimethyl ether, fuel oil, olefins, and chemical fertilizers produced by the company have certain competitive advantages compared to the current large-scale traditional coal chemical products. . Traditional coal chemical companies are still able to survive. What new Hefei coal chemical project is not profitable? On the other hand, banks are now very strict on the regulation of lending, unlike the state-owned enterprises in the first two years as long as they are given to you. On the contrary, taking into account the fact that the investment recovery cycle in the energy and chemical industry is long, before the bank issues energy to chemical and industrial enterprises, it is necessary to review whether the project's yield can exceed the bank interest rate by 2 times, that is, 15%; The corporate capital ratio of project ** is increased from 30% of the general project to 40%, and mortgages and guarantees are required to ensure the healthy development of the banking industry.
Once again, the issue of water is indeed the soft underbelly of the development of the "Golden Triangle" of energy, but it is not an ineffective solution. At present, local governments such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi have implemented vast water diversion projects to solve the "thirsty" problem of energy and chemical bases. For example, Shaanxi is implementing the project of citing the Han-Han Dynasty economy. The project will pass the Han River water through the Qinling Tunnel to the Weihe River. The annual water diversion will reach 1 billion cubic meters, and then it will enter the Yellow River. Through the conversion of water rights, 800 million cubic meters of Yellow River water will be introduced into Yulin. After the project is completed in 2030, it can meet the demand for deep processing of 100-150 million tons of coal per year in Yulin. Prior to this, all projects in the “Golden Triangle†of energy were subject to the approval principle of “measuring the quantity of waterâ€, and corporate water use was basically guaranteed.
At the same time, the “12th Five-Year†Coal Chemical Demonstration Project Technical Specification of the State Council has been submitted to the State Council. The energy consumption and water consumption of the new coal chemical project are strictly regulated. The total water consumption per ton of coal-to-olefins and coal-to-chemical fertilizers The water consumption even fell to half of the original standard. This will force more companies, especially new projects, take all water-saving measures, or launch projects with low water consumption to reduce water consumption.
“As for the issue of CO2 emissions faced by coal chemical industry, this is a fact, but it can be reduced through measures such as capture, storage, and utilization. It can also reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the source through technological innovation. For example, extending China Coal Jingbian Energy and Chemical Project Through the coupling of coal chemical industry and oil and gas chemical industry, the carbon and hydrogen complementation of the system was realized, which not only increased the production of methanol and olefins, but also reduced the carbon dioxide emission by 4.35 million tons per year.The energy “Golden Triangle†is a gas oil enrichment area, which can be promoted A technology, so that many energy and chemical projects, from large carbon emissions into a benchmark for energy-saving emission reduction.†He Yongde said.
Experts such as Yan Guohui, deputy general manager of Shenhua Ningmei Group Chemical Company, Liu Chunquan, general manager of Beijing Petrochemical Engineering Company, and other experts also believe that the same resource endowments of the “Golden Triangle†of energy will determine that their planning projects will inevitably be similar. But as long as the products are marketable and competitive, there is nothing wrong with the layout.
However, experts interviewed unanimously appealed that national-level energy "Golden Triangle" development plan should be introduced as soon as possible, and be clearly defined from the aggregate and macroscopic layout, so that the local government can adjust, clarify, and improve itself according to the country's plans and requirements, in accordance with its own reality. Your own planning and layout. Related companies can also choose advanced energy-saving, water-saving technologies and rational investment according to the requirements of national planning.
The layout of the project is similar to the obvious first look at the planning of these cities.
As the rising star of energy “Golden Triangleâ€, the Ningdong region clearly pointed out in its long-term development plan that in the future, based on the rich coal resources in Ningdong region, it will vigorously develop the coal mining and deep processing industries and build coal-to-olefin, coal-to-oil, Coal dimethyl ether, coal to fertilizer, coal to methanol and other projects. By 2020, a national coal base, thermal power base, and coal chemical base will be formed with a coal production capacity of 130 million tons, a total installed capacity of 27 million kilowatts, and a coal chemical product production capacity of more than 20 million tons. At the same time, plans have been made for the four major project areas of coal from Ningdong Coal Chemical Industry, including methanol to olefins, coal-based dimethyl ether, coal indirect liquefaction, and coal to fertilizer. Among them, the coal-based dimethyl ether project area will rely on the 210,000-ton/year dimethyl ether project that has been completed and put into production, and will eventually achieve a production capacity of 830,000 tons/year; the coal-to-methanol to olefin project area will be put into production. On the basis of the 500,000 tons/year MTP (coal-based propylene) project, construction of MTP and MTO (coal-to-methanol to olefins) projects will continue, resulting in an annual production capacity of 1.22 million tons/year of olefins; the coal indirect liquefaction project area will be formed in 2020. The capacity of 8.2 million tons of oil per year; the coal-to-fertilizer project area will eventually be built with 1.04 million tons of synthetic ammonia and 1.84 million tons of urea per year as the country's largest coal-based chemical fertilizer base.
The Ordos City proposed: to develop thermal power generation, coal-to-oil, coal-to-methanol, coal-to-methanol to olefins, coal-to-dimethyl ether, coke, and calcium carbide, and increase the near-conversion rate of coal to the end of the "Twelfth Five-year Plan." The on-site conversion rate of coal must reach more than 50%. In addition, a 3 million-tonne-per-year coal-to-dimethyl ether project will be used as a pivot to form a 7 million-ton/year dimethyl ether production capacity; two additional production lines will be built to form a Shenhua coal direct liquefaction project, forming 3 million tons/year. Coal-based oil product capacity. At the same time, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of coke and large-scale power generation projects. By 2020, 11 million tons of coal-based oil, 6 million tons of coke and 15 million kilowatts of power generation capacity will be formed, making Ordos a world-class energy and chemical base.
The old energy and chemical bases in Yulin and Yan’an in Shaanxi Province are even more ambitious. Among them, at the end of the “Twelfth Five-year Plan†period in Yulin, a total of 66 million tons of coke, 4.6 million tons of coal tar deep-processed, 5 million tons of coal-based oil, 10 million tons of coal-made methanol, 4 million tons of coal, and methanol-to-olefins will be accumulated. Annual production capacity of tons of aromatics from coal and 2.35 million tons of polyvinyl chloride. At the same time, an annual production capacity of 200 million tons of coal and 25 million kilowatts of thermal power generation will be added. Yan'an City will eventually form an annual production capacity of 100 million tons of coal, 5 million tons of coke, 20 million tons of oil refining, 1 million tons of ethylene, and 3 million tons of methanol and 750,000 tons of methanol to produce olefins.
Even Qingyang City, Gansu Province, which has been developing oil and gas production and petroleum processing, has been affected by the above-mentioned areas, and has been keen to coal mining and near-coal transformation of coal. Qingyang City's “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†clearly stated that it is necessary to vigorously develop the five major industries of petrochemicals, coal power, coal chemical industry, fine chemicals, and building materials, and strive to build 10 million tons of crude oil production, 10 million tons of refining, and 100 million tons of large scale Coal production, tens of kilowatts of installed coal, 10 million tons of coal chemical production, and 1 billion cubic meters of natural gas, coalbed methane, and 12 billion cubic meters of coal gas.
Several local plans are inseparable from coal-to-olefins, coal-to-oil, coal-to-dimethyl ether, coal-to-fertilizer, and coal-to-methanol. They are all willing to make huge investments and are competing for national and world-class competition. According to the current actual investment of the Shenhua coal-to-oil and coal-to-olefin projects that have already been put into production, 110 million yuan / 10,000 tons of oil and 280 million yuan / million tons of olefins are projected. In the next 5 to 10 years, energy will be used in the "Golden Triangle" region. Methanol to olefins (including MTP) accumulated to 8 million tons / year, the required funds of about 224 billion yuan; coal-to-oil total scale of 24,500,000 tons / year, need to invest 290 billion yuan; coal gas 16 billion cubic meters / year According to the calculation of 1 cubic meter of coal gas for investment of 5 yuan, a total investment of 80 billion yuan is required; the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation is 80 million kilowatts/year, and a total investment of 30 billion yuan is needed. If we count the coal mining, coke, deep processing of coal tar, calcium carbide, polyvinyl chloride, methanol, dimethyl ether, chemical fertilizers, and newly planned oil refining and ethylene projects and supporting service facilities, the entire energy “golden triangle†will be used for the next 10 years. Investment in the construction of energy and chemical projects will reach more than 900 billion yuan.
What kind of consequences will result from such a huge amount of money "squeezing" the project to the similar energy "Golden Triangle" region?
Some experts are concerned about the consequences of serious "four coal-based coal-fired coal mines, all of which place coal chemical development as a priority, and will inevitably lead to duplication of competition and homogenous competition. The consequences are worrisome." National Energy Development Institute, National Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission Gao Shixian, director of the research center, Zhang Hong, director of the policy research department of the China Coal Industry Association, Gu Zongqin, director of the Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning, and Hu Xing, deputy inspector of the Shaanxi Provincial Office of Industry and Information Technology expressed their concerns. They said that such a huge amount of funds will be concentrated on similar projects, which may lead to four major adverse consequences.
First, huge coal consumption may trigger coal market volatility. If all the coal chemical projects planned by the “Golden Triangle†of energy are implemented, the annual consumption of coal will exceed 400 million tons, equivalent to 36% of the country’s approved total coal production in the region. Due to the special requirements of coal used in chemical industry, for example, the dry distillation of coal requires a large amount of lump coal as raw material. With the increase of coal mining rate, the lump coal acquisition rate is getting lower and lower, and many coal coking companies may face the risk of no rice as a defect. Moreover, the function of the "Golden Triangle" of energy is mainly to promote the sound development of energy resources in the Ordos Basin. While ensuring the sustainable economic and social development of the region, it also provides energy for the eastern region through the transmission of electricity from the west to the east and the east of coal. If the local government has digested more than 400 million tons of coal, and even some companies' supply of raw materials is tense, how can the energy "Golden Triangle" assume the task of "continuation of energy in the 21st century?"
Second, due to the constraints of water resources, the project is difficult to play a role. Experts believe that although the Ordos Basin is rich in coal, salt, oil and gas resources, the lack of water resources and ecologically fragile conditions will seriously restrict the project's capacity. At present, some projects in Yulin, Ningdong, and Ordos have already found that water resources are stretched. Some projects were forced to cut production and stop production due to insufficient water supply during the dry season. Once the planned projects are completed, the annual water requirement is definitely an astronomical figure. This will not only aggravate the inconsistency in the supply and demand of local water resources, but may even lead to the phenomenon of “grabbing†water in industry and agriculture and in the lives of residents. By then, many projects with huge investments will face the thirst of thirst.
Third, the pressure of carbon dioxide emission reduction is increasing. Coal-based coal chemical projects are high-emission projects. For every ton of methanol produced, 2.8 tons of carbon dioxide will be emitted; for one ton of coal-based oil products, 8.8 tons of carbon dioxide will be emitted.
Other coal-fired power generation, coke, calcium carbide and other projects will emit carbon dioxide. If all of the above-mentioned planned projects are implemented, the annual carbon dioxide emissions from energy “Golden Triangle†may be as high as 500 million tons. With the increase of national environmental protection requirements, the pressure of carbon emission reductions by related companies will be enormous. Li Shuyi, a member of the Shaanxi Provincial Decision-making Advisory Committee, warned that taking Shaanxi alone as an example, by 2015, the carbon dioxide emissions from coal chemical industry may reach 180 million tons, putting tremendous pressure on the province's energy-saving and emission reduction work.
“If the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air of a certain area is high, it will seriously affect the normal operation of the large-scale air separation plant molecular sieve, and then affect the normal production of the entire chemical plant. This lesson has happened before.†Li Dapeng, assistant to the general manager of Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Group, reminded .
The fourth is to face greater risk of investment recovery. On the one hand, energy and chemical projects, especially coal chemical projects themselves have large investments, long construction periods, and high technical and management requirements. The projects built are often difficult to meet production, standards, and results on schedule. Some projects have been difficult to reach design capabilities even for several years, increasing the company's financial costs. On the other hand, the “Golden Triangle†of energy homogenization competition will be constrained by such factors as transport bottlenecks and distance from consumer sites, causing partial overproduction of products, insufficient operating rate of enterprises or competition for price competition, reducing revenue, and extending the repayment period. At present, more than 90% of the enterprises involved in the development of energy "Golden Triangle" are state-owned and large state-owned enterprises, and most of the funds for project construction depend on banks. Once this happens, the risk will be passed to the banking system, increasing bank bad debts, and even trigger new financial turmoil and social problems.
Some experts said that there is no need to worry, however, in favor of energy "Golden Triangle" to vigorously develop the energy and chemical industry, and recognized the same layout of the experts are also in the minority.
He Yongde, a coal chemical expert and member of the Shaanxi Provincial Decision-making Advisory Committee, said: "The energy 'Golden Triangle' plan and the project layout are in line with the principle of national energy proximity, intensive, centralized, and efficient transformation, and will not bring any adverse consequences."
According to He Yongde's analysis, first of all, the resources of the “Golden Triangle†of energy are sufficient, and the development of the energy and chemical industry has inherent advantages. The characteristics of rich coal, lean gas, and low oil resources in China determine that we must develop coal chemical industry to ensure China's energy strategic security. Compared with the traditional coal chemical industry, the new coal chemical plant has a large scale, low energy consumption, low pollutant emissions, high added value, and has a significant role in driving the local economy. However, the relatively mature technologies of the new coal chemical industry are coal-to-dimethyl ether, coal-to-olefin (or propylene), coal-to-natural gas, coal-to-oil, and coal-based fertilizer technology based on the coupling of high-efficiency coal gasification technology. Few, objectively decided on areas including energy "golden triangle", can only be on the same project.
However, similarity does not mean overcapacity and redundant construction, nor does it mean that projects or products are not competitive. For example, coal produces olefins. In China, the annual olefin deficiencies exceed 10 million tons. The shortage of petroleum resources and the high cost of producing olefins. Using our independently developed DMTO technology can not only effectively solve the problem of insufficient oil resources, but also enable efficient and clean coal conversion and promote the implementation of coal-to-oil strategy. In 2010, the world's first 600,000-ton/year DMTO industrialization demonstration project with a total investment of RMB 17 billion was put into operation in Shenhua Baotou, which achieved good economic returns that year. In the future, it will bring at least 2 billion yuan in net profits each year. How can such a project be more "similar"?
For another example, the west coast of Mexico, located in Houston, USA, has a total length of 120 kilometers. All of the regional layout is similar to petrochemical projects. The scale of investment and industry is much larger than the “Golden Triangle†of energy.
However, it has not been known that companies compete with each other in price competition, and even more companies do not have the pressure to reduce carbon emissions.
Secondly, there is no need to worry too much about the large investment in coal chemical projects and the long payback period. On the one hand, all the companies choose are new coal chemical technologies. Natural gas, dimethyl ether, fuel oil, olefins, and chemical fertilizers produced by the company have certain competitive advantages compared to the current large-scale traditional coal chemical products. . Traditional coal chemical companies are still able to survive. What new Hefei coal chemical project is not profitable? On the other hand, banks are now very strict on the regulation of lending, unlike the state-owned enterprises in the first two years as long as they are given to you. On the contrary, taking into account the fact that the investment recovery cycle in the energy and chemical industry is long, before the bank issues energy to chemical and industrial enterprises, it is necessary to review whether the project's yield can exceed the bank interest rate by 2 times, that is, 15%; The corporate capital ratio of project ** is increased from 30% of the general project to 40%, and mortgages and guarantees are required to ensure the healthy development of the banking industry.
Once again, the issue of water is indeed the soft underbelly of the development of the "Golden Triangle" of energy, but it is not an ineffective solution. At present, local governments such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi have implemented vast water diversion projects to solve the "thirsty" problem of energy and chemical bases. For example, Shaanxi is implementing the project of citing the Han-Han Dynasty economy. The project will pass the Han River water through the Qinling Tunnel to the Weihe River. The annual water diversion will reach 1 billion cubic meters, and then it will enter the Yellow River. Through the conversion of water rights, 800 million cubic meters of Yellow River water will be introduced into Yulin. After the project is completed in 2030, it can meet the demand for deep processing of 100-150 million tons of coal per year in Yulin. Prior to this, all projects in the “Golden Triangle†of energy were subject to the approval principle of “measuring the quantity of waterâ€, and corporate water use was basically guaranteed.
At the same time, the “12th Five-Year†Coal Chemical Demonstration Project Technical Specification of the State Council has been submitted to the State Council. The energy consumption and water consumption of the new coal chemical project are strictly regulated. The total water consumption per ton of coal-to-olefins and coal-to-chemical fertilizers The water consumption even fell to half of the original standard. This will force more companies, especially new projects, take all water-saving measures, or launch projects with low water consumption to reduce water consumption.
“As for the issue of CO2 emissions faced by coal chemical industry, this is a fact, but it can be reduced through measures such as capture, storage, and utilization. It can also reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the source through technological innovation. For example, extending China Coal Jingbian Energy and Chemical Project Through the coupling of coal chemical industry and oil and gas chemical industry, the carbon and hydrogen complementation of the system was realized, which not only increased the production of methanol and olefins, but also reduced the carbon dioxide emission by 4.35 million tons per year.The energy “Golden Triangle†is a gas oil enrichment area, which can be promoted A technology, so that many energy and chemical projects, from large carbon emissions into a benchmark for energy-saving emission reduction.†He Yongde said.
Experts such as Yan Guohui, deputy general manager of Shenhua Ningmei Group Chemical Company, Liu Chunquan, general manager of Beijing Petrochemical Engineering Company, and other experts also believe that the same resource endowments of the “Golden Triangle†of energy will determine that their planning projects will inevitably be similar. But as long as the products are marketable and competitive, there is nothing wrong with the layout.
However, experts interviewed unanimously appealed that national-level energy "Golden Triangle" development plan should be introduced as soon as possible, and be clearly defined from the aggregate and macroscopic layout, so that the local government can adjust, clarify, and improve itself according to the country's plans and requirements, in accordance with its own reality. Your own planning and layout. Related companies can also choose advanced energy-saving, water-saving technologies and rational investment according to the requirements of national planning.
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