Steel City's haze retreats before stabilizing

Near the Spring Festival holiday, the steel market has gradually deserted. Due to the factors of early leave from traders, the domestic steel market will be dominated by stable, medium and small fluctuations during the week prior to the holiday (2013.2.4-2.8). Due to the expected good market conditions for spring, the willingness of traders to increase their winter deposits, and the inertia of “aftersales” after the holiday, it is expected that the domestic steel market will increase steadily in the week after the holiday (2013.2.18-2.22).

According to the forecast data of the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price forecast model, the domestic steel market price will stably fluctuate slightly in the week before the holiday; the domestic steel market price will increase slightly in the week after the holiday (2013.2.18-2.22), and the long products market will increase Slightly up, while the plate market price will rise steadily. The Lange Steel Price Index is expected to fluctuate around 154.9 points. The average price of steel is about 4030 yuan, and the average pull-up rate is about 30-40 yuan. Lange Steel's long product index is expected to fluctuate around 168.4, and it will increase by 1.0 point. Left and right; Lange Steel's price index for sheet metal is expected to fluctuate around 138.6 points, which is about 1.2 points higher.

According to the market research of Lange Steel Information Research Center, the domestic long product market price will increase slightly in the week after the holiday (2013.2.18-2.22), and the plate market price will increase steadily; the raw material market price will increase steadily. The market price of iron ore will increase by 10-20 yuan, the coke market price will remain stable, the scrap market price will rise by 30 yuan, and the billet market price will increase by 90-110 yuan.

1. Domestic steel market increased slightly this week. Week 5 of 2013 (2013.1.28-2.1) The Lange Steel (LGMI) Composite Price Index reached 153.8 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.69%, and a decrease of 8.79% from the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long products price index was 167.4 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.56%, a decrease of 12.20% from the same period of last year. The LGMI sheet price index was 137.4 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.89%, and a decrease of 3.29% from the same period of last year.

According to the market monitoring of Lange Steel Information Research Center, in the 5th week of 2013, the price changes of 17 types of iron and steel raw materials and steel products in 44 categories (44 varieties) were as follows: The market price of major steel products increased slightly. Compared with the week, the rising varieties increased significantly, the flat varieties decreased, and the falling varieties decreased. Among them, 35 varieties rose, 16 more than last week; 8 were flat, down 9 from last week; 1 product fell, down 7 from last week. The price of domestic steel raw materials market was steadily higher, iron ore market prices rose steadily by 10 yuan, coke market prices rose steadily by 10 yuan, scrap market prices remained stable, and billet market prices rose by 40-70 yuan.

2. This week, the national steel stocks rise at a significantly faster pace. At present, the nation's steel stocks have rebounded for six weeks. The increase in the rate of building materials inventories has accelerated, and the rate of increase in sheet stocks has slowed slightly. According to market monitoring by Lange Steel Information Research Center, on February 1st, steel society stocks in 29 key cities across the country amounted to 13,933,300 tons, an increase of 633,300 tons over the previous week, which was an increase of 4.76%, which was significantly faster than last week ( 2.59 percentage points faster.) From the perspective of sub-categories, the country’s wire rod social inventory was 1.449 million tons, up 9.73% from the previous week; the rebar social inventory was 5,882,200 tons, up 7.56% from last week; the inventory of the social inventory of the coiled screw was 457,300 tons. This was an increase of 21.76% over the previous week. The social volume of hot coiled coils was 3.375 million tons, up 0.51% from last week. The social volume of cold coiled coils was 1.151 million tons, down 0.46% from last week; The amount was 1,327,900 tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week.

3. Concerned about the recent factors affecting steel prices Macroeconomics:

In 2012, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.3% year-on-year

According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2012, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size were 5575.8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year. The profit for the month of December was 895.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%. Among the 41 industrial major industries, the profits of 29 industries increased year-on-year, 11 industries decreased year-on-year, and 1 industry changed from losses of the same period to profits. Profit growth of major industries: profit of agricultural and non-staple food processing industry increased by 20.6%, general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 4.2%, automobile manufacturing industry increased by 5.6%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing increased by 8.3%, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing. The industry grew by 7.9%, electricity and heat production and supply increased by 69.1%, oil and natural gas extraction decreased by 2.2%, chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing fell by 5.9%, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 37.3%, and petroleum processing, The coking and nuclear fuel processing industry changed from losses in the same period to profits.

The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced the list of the first batch of national smart cities and explored a new urbanization model. The National Smart City Pilot Construction Conference organized by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development was held in Beijing on January 29th. The meeting announced the first batch of national smart city pilots; the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and Development A group of pilot cities (districts, counties, towns) representatives and their superior people's governments signed an agreement to jointly promote the creation of smart cities. After the procedures of local city declaration, provincial housing and urban construction department preliminary review, and expert comprehensive review, the first batch of national smart city pilots totaled 90, including 37 prefecture-level cities, 50 districts (counties), 3 towns, and pilot cities. After a period of 3 to 5 years, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will organize an assessment and evaluate the pilot cities (regions and towns) that have passed the assessment. The ratings will be divided into one star, two stars and Samsung from low to high.

The China Development Bank stated that in the three years following the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the scale of funds for cooperation with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development to invest in smart cities reached 80 billion, and according to the signed cooperation agreement, the project selection, investigation, and lending were solidly and steadily promoted; Representatives of provincial and pilot cities where the pilot cities are located stated that they will be organized and implemented in a meticulous manner in accordance with the overall requirements and plans of the national smart city, and plans for the construction of smart cities will be implemented step by step.

China's manufacturing PMI was 50.4% in January

The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2013 released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey was 50.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The index remained above 50% for four consecutive months and the trend was basically stable. The new orders index rose this month, the demand base was further consolidated, the supply and demand relationship improved, and the raw materials inventory index increased, reflecting the increase in business confidence. On the whole, the economic operation remained stable and started well. The increase in the purchase price index and the raw materials inventory index reflect that companies are expected to continue to improve, and the scale of production and operation is still expanding. However, as the new orders index rose, the export orders index and the backlog order index declined, and the overall level of orders tended to be stable, it was predicted that future supplementary inventory activities and production activities would stabilize.

HSBC China Manufacturing PMI final value in January hits two-year high HSBC Bank released data on Friday (February 1), China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose sharply to 52.3 in January, setting a record for two years The highest level since January was 51.9, and the final value in December was 51.5. If the index is higher than 50, it indicates that manufacturing activity is expanding; if it is lower than 50, it indicates that manufacturing activity is shrinking.

Sub-indicators show that the manufacturing output index jumped to 53.1 in January, the highest level since March 2011. In addition, sub-indexes such as new orders, new export orders, and employment also rose, all verifying that the manufacturing sector is recovering further.

Industry News:

In 2012, the world's crude steel production reached new heights. According to statistics from the World Steel Association, the world's crude steel production in 2012 was 154.78 million tons, which was a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, and hit a record high for three consecutive years. China's crude steel production is 781.50 million tons, accounting for 46% of the world's total production. However, the growth rate was only 3.1%, which was below 5% for the first time in four years. Japan's crude steel output decreased by 0.3%, still ranking second. Among the top 10 countries in terms of output, Germany and Ukraine in Europe have experienced a decline. In emerging economies, Turkey and Brazil, which is under pressure to import crude steel, are also lower than in the previous year. The average operating rate of crude steel production equipment was 78.8% in 2012, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous year.

Hebei Iron and Steel expects 2012 net profit loss of 340 million yuan on the 30th Hebei Iron and Steel announced that it is expected in 2012 to achieve the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 13.8 million yuan, a loss of 340 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75% -99%. The company stated that in 2012, the company's internal production operations were basically normal, but due to the continuing downturn in demand for downstream steel, the steel market exceeded supply, homogenization competition became more intense, steel prices fell sharply, and raw fuel prices were especially iron ore prices. The decline was far lower than the drop in steel prices, resulting in a substantial decline in the company's profitability.

Hangzhou Iron and Steel Corporation expects 2012 net profit loss of 380 million yuan on the 30th Hangzhou Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. issued an announcement, preliminary calculations by the company's financial department, 2012 annual results will be a loss, it is expected to achieve attributable to shareholders of listed companies net profit of -3.8 billion. The company stated that due to the lack of downstream demand and the continuing downturn in the steel market in 2012, the company has tried various measures to reduce costs and increase efficiency, but it has still not been able to withstand the adverse impact of the residential market, leading to the company's 2012 annual loss.

Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. expects to lose 4.16 billion yuan in 2012. Anshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. announced on 30th that the company expects to lose 4.16 billion yuan in 2012. The company stated that the price of steel products dropped sharply in 2012, resulting in a serious decline in the company's efficiency, with serious losses in the first three quarters. Although a large number of losses control measures were taken to significantly reduce procurement costs, logistics costs, process production costs, and period expenses, and implement efficiency measures such as adjusting the variety structure, the amount of losses in the fourth quarter declined, but the 2012 loss situation could not be reversed. .

Shougang Group expects to lose 3-4 billion yuan in 2012. Shougang Co., Ltd. announced on 30th that the company expects to lose 3-4 billion yuan in 2012. The company stated that in 2012, the macroeconomic growth slowed down, the demand in the steel market shrank, and the price dropped sharply under the influence of a sharp drop in prices; the foreign investment income dropped significantly.

According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, major iron and steel companies in 2012 have seen significant reductions in their profits. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, in 2012, the steel companies of the China Iron and Steel Association have realized a total sales income of 354.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.31%; and a reduction in profits and taxes of 74.089 billion yuan. 54.33% realized a profit of 1.581 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 98.22%. There were 23 cumulative loss-making enterprises throughout the year, an increase of 15 over the same period of the previous year, a loss of 28.75%, and loss of the loss-making enterprises amounted to RMB28.924 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.39 times.

January steel industry PMI 45.3% contraction range slightly reduced Lange Steel Information Research Center released in January 2013 steel industry PMI was 45.3%, a slight drop of 0.2 percentage points in the contraction range. According to the sub-indexes, the 10 sub-indexes surveyed by the Steel and Metals Pyeontics PMI for January were down by 1 liter, and 4 were above the line of Rong and Yang. Among them, the sales price and purchase cost index continued to climb in the line of rising and falling, and the sales volume index decreased, indicating that the cost support steel price continued to rise, but the actual transaction of the company did not show any obvious improvement; the trend judgment and inventory index rose above the line of honor and death, indicating that The confidence of the steel trading companies increased, and the inventory increased significantly. The total orders index rose slightly, and the purchase willingness index returned below the line of renminbi, indicating that demand was picking up, but the efforts were insufficient. The overall judgment is that after the February quarter, the steel price will be pulled up and then adjusted for shocks.

The previous session of the thread ** rose on the 1st main contract rose 1.31%

The rebar main 1305 contract was opened at 1,121 yuan/ton in the morning on the 1st, after the opening all the way up, the lowest in the day 4,111 yuan/ton, the highest 4,121 yuan/ton, to close at 4,168 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day ( On January 31, the settlement price rose 54 yuan/ton, 2,108,662 lots were traded, 1,376,852 lots were hand positions, and 44,352 lots were added.

Downstream demand:

China's three major indicators of shipbuilding will continue to decline in 2013 China Shipbuilding Industry Association released a report on January 25, 2013, the global shipping market may be slightly improved over 2012, the world's new ship bookings are expected to reach 60 million -75 million Dwt. Due to the decrease in hand-held order volume, low finished ship prices, and rising production costs, it is expected that the major economic indicators of China's shipbuilding industry will continue to decline in 2013. The ship will be completed with an annual total of approximately 55 million dwt, and new orders may increase slightly, but Handheld orders will drop below 100 million dwt.

In 2012, the three major indicators of China's shipbuilding industry maintained a high level of world market share in terms of DWT. According to the statistics of the China Shipbuilding Association, in 2012, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 60.21 million dwt, which was 21.4% lower than the same period of last year; the number of orders for new vessels was 20.41 million dwt, down 43.6% year-on-year; by the end of December of the same year, the ship was hand-held. The amount was 10,695 million dwt, a decrease of 28.7% from the same period of last year. In the same period, there were 1647 shipyards above designated size in the country, with a total industrial output value of 790.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Among them, shipbuilding enterprises completed output value of 595.1 billion yuan, down 0.1% year-on-year; ship supporting enterprises output value 113 billion yuan, an increase of 15.1%; ship repair business output value of 18.1 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6%; ship conversion enterprise output value 31.7 billion yuan, The year-on-year increase was 23.6%. In 2012, China's shipbuilding enterprises completed 49.94 million dwt of export ships, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%; orders for export vessels were 14,960,000 dwt, down 45.9% year-on-year; at the end of the year, the number of export ship orders was 88.44 million dwt, down 35.3% year-on-year. The number of completed ships, newly-accepted orders, and hand-held orders accounted for 82.2%, 73.3%, and 82.7% of the national total respectively.

In 2013, the RMB 520 billion railway construction capital source was implemented in the 2013 National Road Development Working Conference held by the Ministry of Railways in Beijing. The Ministry of Railways planned to invest RMB 520 billion in the national railway construction in 2013. The sources of funds include: RMB 12.65 billion in funds in the central budget. The construction of **30.2 billion yuan, railway special funds 19.5 billion yuan, railway bonds 150 billion yuan, railway enterprises self-raised 1 billion yuan, local and corporate investment 70 billion yuan, foreign investment 3.8 billion yuan, the bank ** 232.85 billion yuan.

In December 2012, the growth rate of production and sales of the construction machinery industry in the country was relatively flat, and the chain ratio increased significantly. According to the statistics of the Engine Mesh Network, in December 2012, the national industrial machinery industry completed a total industrial output value of 56.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.39%. The growth was 32.06%; in December, the sales value of sales was 55.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.71%, and the growth rate was 26.73%. In October, the sales-to-sales rate was 97.1%, a decrease of 4% from the previous month. From January to December, the national construction machinery industry completed industrial output value of 606.834 billion yuan, a cumulative increase of 0.59% year-on-year; according to the Mesh Economics statistics: completed sales value of 591.571 billion yuan, a cumulative increase of 1.85%. The production and sales rate is 98.29%.

In December, there was a slight difference between the three sub-sectors of the construction machinery industry in the year-on-year growth rate. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of the special-purpose machinery manufacturing for construction materials production reached a maximum of 32.66%, and the lowest growth rate for the construction machinery manufacturing use was 6.88%. The industrial sales value increased by 37.12% year-on-year to the manufacturing of special-purpose machinery for construction materials, and the lowest growth rate for machinery manufacturing for construction projects was 5.33%.