Macquarie: The resource industry is still dominated by supply and most optimistic about the steel industry

The Meg Haircut Report reports that this year's preference is for industries with controlled supply and low raw material costs, as well as shares with policy support. Industry demand is expected to grow only modestly as GDP growth slows and property construction will remain weak until the second half of the year. The main demand power is still from infrastructure.

Looking forward to this year, in terms of policy, the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei will benefit Jinlu; the reform of state-owned enterprises will benefit Conch and Baosteel; the transformation of tax policy will benefit Shenhua and China National Petroleum Corporation; the interest rate cut will benefit Chinalco, Maanshan Iron and Steel, and the renminbi or the weak, Unfavorable crepe paper and Lee & Man paper; potential asset injection/sale will benefit Shenhua and Chinalco.

Among the many industries, the bank prefers the steel industry this year and believes it can continue to be revalued. Benefiting from better production capacity control and iron ore prices falling year by year, the average compound annual growth rate in 2015-16 is expected to reach 20% to 54%. The industry's top picks are Baosteel and Angang. Ma Steel's rating rose to "outperform the market."

In the cement industry, although demand growth has slowed this year, it is expected that capacity utilization will see improvement. As demand in the North rebounds, it is believed that companies with weaker performance in the past can recover. I believe that Jinluo, Conch and Conch Ventures can outperform. The gross profit per ton of mud will fall and the rating will be reduced to “neutral”.

In the coal industry, it is believed that the performance of thermal coal will move with the big market, but it is not optimistic about coking coal. China Coal Energy and Yancoal are rated “Neutral”.

In the paper industry, I believe it will take another year to adjust the problem of oversupply, as demand growth remains sluggish. I believe that this year will be a year of integration, and there will be a structural change next year. The utilization rate will rise to 87%. The crepe paper has reached the target price of the bank, and investors are advised to make a profit first, waiting for a better time to enter the market.

In terms of metal/fertilizer, it is believed that Chinalco will be able to regain profits after selling assets and cutting costs. Jiangxi Copper and Zijin are rated “neutral” and Zhaojin maintains “underperform”. Still optimistic about the fertilizer industry, Zhonghai Petrochemical is the first choice.


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