The first time after BCI nine consecutive shade

According to the latest data from the Business Club, the February BCI index was 0.11, with an average increase of 1.76%, reflecting that the manufacturing economy expanded during the month compared to last month and the economy showed signs of stabilizing.

At the same time, the February commodity price index BPI showed a gradual bottoming out trend. After the BPI hit a record low of 748 points on February 3rd, BPI rebounded all the way to 759 points at the end of the month, up 1.3% from the beginning of the month.

On a month-on-month basis, the February BCI situation was fundamentally better than January (-0.64) and was also the best performance in the past 18 months (average increase of 29 months); In the same period of last year, there was a significant improvement (BCI in February 2014 was -0.43, with an increase or decrease of -1.51%); from the trend point of view, February BCI suddenly reversed in the previous 9 consecutive negative and declining seasons. A clear watershed has formed and a new phase has been entered.

According to Liu Xintian, chief analyst of the business community, there were three main reasons for the BCI’s closing of the Xiaoyang line in February: First, the stabilization of crude oil, the declining trend of overall commodities, and the rebound of some industrial chains; second, the Chinese Spring Festival, the majority of manufacturers, During the Chinese New Year, traders “stopped”, and the market remained stable, with no major fluctuations. Third, there was no new bearishness on the economic front, and there was no new good news. The international market as a whole was calm, and the domestic commodity market was less affected.

As for the performance of BPI's rebound after a seven-month continuous unilateral decline, Liu Xintian believes that this reflects at least two signals: First, the commodity market has bid farewell to the new phase since February; the second is due to the early stage. With too much fierceness, the "bottom" has dug too deep, so the market has room to rebound.

Expected market outlook, in view of the traditional peak season of the March commodity market and the upcoming **, favorable will be released, so March BCI is still expected to close. What needs to be vigilant is that the fundamental contradiction between the supply and demand of the manufacturing economy will take a long time to resolve. The new bright spots of the Chinese economy along the way, the free trade areas, etc. have not yet fully flourished, and the Chinese bulk commodity and manufacturing industries are still in a downturn. At present, it is only to say goodbye to unilateral decline.