Abstract The initial value of HSBC PMI rose to 49.8% in January, which was not only better than expected, but also higher than the final value of 49.6% last month. However, the data is still below the line of glory, indicating that the real economy is still weak, and the economic growth rate in the first quarter is likely to continue to slow down. Before the Spring Festival, it has always been the traditional low season of manufacturing...
In January, the initial value of HSBC PMI rebounded to 49.8%, which was not only better than expected, but also higher than the final value of 49.6% last month. However, the data is still below the line of glory, indicating that the real economy is still weak, and the economic growth rate in the first quarter is likely to continue to slow down. The Spring Festival has always been a traditional low season for manufacturing, and it is also a land of data. However, the initial value of the data is still expected to rebound, which is a positive phenomenon. And the new order sub-index rebounded, the new export order index maintained growth, and external demand recovery stabilized.
But it is worth noting that manufacturing demand has improved slightly but is not enough to affect inventory and employment.
“The first quarter is generally low in the economy of the whole year. Due to the influence of the Spring Festival, the investment rate is not high. The economic growth rate in the first quarter is likely to continue to fall to 7%.†Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, told reporters Say.
Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC Greater China, pointed out that “the manufacturing industry has slowed down for two consecutive months after the interest rate cut, reflecting the lack of easing. The government should introduce more powerful monetary and fiscal easing policies to boost economic growth. ."
In fact, compared with last year, this year’s steady growth policy has already been advanced. The National Development and Reform Commission has approved two infrastructure projects in less than two weeks this year. Analysts said that this is in the same period as the fourth quarter of last year. Together, the projects are prepared for the first quarter economy. In addition, the central bank [microblogging] also increased the "three rural" and small and micro enterprise loans.
Although the central bank restarted the 50 billion 7-day reverse repurchase in the open market on the 22nd, the pace of RRR cuts was postponed. Haitong Securities believes that “looseness will only be absent from the postponementâ€. There is still room for interest rate cuts from the perspective of steady growth and anti-deflation, and further loosening operations such as RRR cuts are also possible.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that in the sub-index, the initial value of the input price index fell to 39.9%, the lowest since March 2009, which aggravated the market's concerns about deflation.
In this regard, Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomic researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, told China Securities Network that “deflation is not enough.†The fear of deflation is mainly due to insufficient market demand, but the lack of demand will not continue.
Zhang Liqun also said that the biggest feature of the new normal is that the market demand has changed from the previous supply shortage to the supply and demand. In this process, the competition of enterprises is intensified, which is conducive to the transformation and upgrading of enterprises.
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